The North Carolina Tar Heels will face the San Diego State Aztecs in the First Four on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio. The winner of this battle of the No. 11 seeds will face Ole Miss in the First Round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. These teams have faced off only once in their prestigious histories. SDSU defeated UNC 67-59 in December 2013. Will North Carolina be able to avenge that defeat and put a tough regular season behind them?
North Carolina Season Summary
It has been a disappointing season for the Tar Heels. They were 22-13 and have fared miserably against the nation’s best teams. They are 1-12 against Quad 1 teams. Their lone win in that quadrant was a victory against UCLA. North Carolina had Duke on the ropes in the ACC Tournament Semifinals though. A lane violation on a free throw hurt UNC’s chance to pull off the massive upset. The Tar Heels were far from a guarantee to make the tournament, but they squeaked their way in. They will look to reward the Selection Committee’s faith in them.
The Tar Heels are led by Guard RJ Davis. His success has correlated to North Carolina’s success this season. Carolina has had a great offense this season. They are 32rd in points per game, 42nd in field goal percentage, and 100th in three-point percentage. UNC’s defense has been awful. They are 273rd in opposing points per game, 141st in opposing field goal percentage, and 175th in opposing three-point percentage.
San Diego State Season Summary
San Diego State was 21-9 during the regular season. The Aztecs have played a much softer schedule than the Tar Heels this season. UNC was 26th in Strength of Schedule. SDSU was 66th. The Aztecs were 3-6 in Quad I but notched a win against the Houston Cougars. Houston was a No. 1 seed in the bracket. That was a great win for the Aztecs.
San Diego State has used a committee-like approach on offense. They have eight players averaging five points or more. Their offense has struggled at times this season. They are 261st in points per game, 194th in field goal percentage, and 212th in three-point percentage. A mirror opposite of their opposition, San Diego State was paced by its defense. They are 14th in points allowed, leading the nation in opposing field goal percentage, and 20th in opposing three-point percentage.
Final Thoughts
The winner of this game will come down to which team’s strength will prevail. North Carolina’s potent offense will face a great San Diego State defense. Both of the teams also have recent NCAA Tournament success to draw upon as they enter the 2025 edition. San Diego State made it to the National Championship Game in 2023. North Carolina made it to the National Championship in 2022. Both teams lost the championship game. This should be a great game between two teams with distinct strengths.
