The New England Patriots are coming off an abysmal 4-13 record last season where they finished last in the AFC East, were tied for last in points per game at 13.9, and failed to make the playoffs for the second consecutive year.
The team has made a lot of changes since the season ended in January though. Bill Belichick parted ways with the Patriots after 24 seasons, Jerod Mayo was hired as head coach, and quarterback Drake Maye was drafted with the third overall pick. Another notable pick was wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk, a second-round selection.
Cornerback Christian Gonzalez, linebacker Matthew Judon, and wide receiver Kendrick Bourne will return after they all suffered season-ending injuries in 2023. Having three of your best players get sidelined? What luck the Pats had. Despite missing their two best defensive players, New England’s defense was their biggest strength last season.
Will the Patriots bounce back with a new squad after last season’s disappointment? I’ll predict every Patriots game in the 2024-25 season.
New England Patriots Game Predictions
Week 1: At The Bengals
This is going to be a tough first game for the Patriots. They’re playing on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow and the rest of the crew are going to be ready to go after Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury in Week 10.
Let’s not forget that Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when healthy. This man is undefeated against Patrick Mahomes, so he’s in rarified air. Additionally, the Bengals have two great wide receivers: Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
There will likely be some kinks to be worked out with so many new players and coaches. Playing against a talented and successful team, the Patriots are not going to win this game.
Week 2: Versus The Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks had a middle-of-the-pack season in 2023, finishing the season at 9-8 and were third place in the NFC West. Geno Smith is a solid quarterback but has his ups and downs. It’s a whole lot better than having a guy like Mac Jones who just had his downs last season.
Seattle also had a middle-of-the-road offensive performance last season, ranking 16th in points per game with 21.4. The team struggled more on defense, ranking 23rd in opponents points per game with 23.6.
The Seahawks haven’t made any major changes and they have kept the same offense they had last season. Seattle has a formidable receiving core with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, as well as promising second-year player Jaxon Smith Njigba. Along with running back Kenneth Walker III and tight end Noah Fant, the Seahawks have a noticeably better offense than the Patriots. Tally this one as a loss for the Patriots as well.
Week 3 And 8: The Jets
Since the Patriots play the New York Jets twice, I am going to do both of my game predictions against the Gang Green here.
In Week 3, the Pats travel to East Rutherford, New Jersey to play Aaron Rodgers and the Jets (if he plays more than a couple of snaps this season.) Rodgers is definitely a force to be reckoned with. Additionally, the Jets’ defense is elite and is led by cornerback Sauce Gardner along with Quinnen Williams and C.J. Mosley.
Their offense is pretty solid too. Breece Hall had almost 1,000 rushing yards last season and the team has added former Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams to the team. Garrett Wilson is another star wide receiver, being named the 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year.
I expect the Patriots will still be getting their feet under them against a tough Jets defense and an increasingly better offense. While I could see them keeping this game close because Patriots-Jets games always seem to be that way, the Patriots will lose this game on the road.
In Week 8, the Jets will travel to Foxborough. The Patriots will hopefully have their affairs in order and will be running the offense more smoothly.
This is going to be a game where everything comes together for the Patriots. They will get a couple of huge interceptions. They will also break off a couple of big offensive plays. I’m sensing a huge game for Drake Maye and Kendrick Bourne in this matchup. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old, and he’s not a Tom Brady 40. He is bound to have some bad games at this age. The Patriots will steal a win in this home matchup.
Week 4: At The 49ers
Unlike the Week 8 game at the Jets, this pick will not surprise anybody except if multiple major 49ers players are out. The Patriots are going to lose this game and probably lose it by a lot. I don’t see it in the cards for the Patriots to beat the defending NFC Champions on the road.
The San Francisco 49ers are elite on both sides of the ball. The team averaged 28.9 points per game last season (3rd in the NFL) and 398.4 yards per game (2nd). Additionally, San Francisco held their opponents to 17.5 points per game in the 2023-24 season (3rd) and recorded 22 interceptions (2nd).
All of these top three stats are insane. Frankly, it seems illegal to have this many high-performing stats but here we are. The Patriots can hold their own on defense but are miles behind the 49ers in terms of offensive performance.
Week 5 And 12: Versus The Dolphins
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Like Jets games, the Miami Dolphins are always an interesting, competitive matchup. Even last season, the Patriots only lost by seven to the Dolphins 24-17 after a controversial first down by Pats tight end Mike Gesicki was reversed.
The Dolphins are one of those weird teams like the Cowboys where in some games they can look like one of the best teams in the NFL, and in other games, they look terrible. What Dolphins team will the Patriots get in this game? It’s a bit hard to say, but Miami started 4-1 last season. So they will likely get a good, energized team.
The Dolphins are a great team when they want to be. Tua Tagovailoa can have his up-and-down moments but for the most part was great last season. And we all know how dominant Tyreek Hill was, leading the league with 1,799 receiving yards. The Dolphins also added Odell Beckham Jr. to this star-studded receiving core. As it stands now, the Dolphins are a much more talented team than the Patriots and will win the first meeting between the division opponents.
In the second game, they will be playing in Miami. I’ll just cut to the chase here, the Dolphins will likely win again, although I predict it will be a closer game because the Patriots will have more tape on them from the last game and can make some adjustments.
If the Dolphins didn’t have so many great receivers and a good quarterback, New England would win at least one out of the two. But where they’re at now, the Dolphins have the edge and the Pats aren’t quite at their level currently. Like the 49ers, the Dolphins simply far outpace the Patriots in terms of offensive performance and star power.
Week 6: Versus The Texans
I can’t stress enough how ridiculous of an opening schedule this is for a 4-13 team the season before. Not only do the Patriots have to play the Dolphins, 49ers, and Bengals in the first five weeks of the season, but they also have to play CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans. Unfortunately for Pats Nation, this is another easy prediction.
Unless CJ Stroud enters a sophomore slump and the receiving core led by Nico Collins stops playing at a high level, I don’t see much reason why the Patriots would win this game. Houston also added Stefon Diggs to this already great receiving core, no big deal. The Texans averaged 22.2 points per game last season, 8.3 points better than the Patriots’ average.
Houston also ranked 11th best in opponents points per game at 20.8. Even though the Patriots are considered to have a great defense, they still allowed more points per game than the Texans, allowing 21.5 points per game. The Strouds will continue to go strong in this Week 6 matchup in New England.
Week 7: At The Jaguars
It’s Week 7 and the Patriots are at a disastrous 0-6. But hey, it’s not entirely their fault, they’ve just had tough opponents so far. Blame the NFL schedule makers! In this matchup, the Patriots travel to London to play the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville lost Calvin Ridley to the Titans so that’s a bit of a blow to them. The Jags’ offense isn’t a lot different from the Patriots, a solid running back, a rookie wide receiver, and some mediocre veteran receivers. I don’t care that Trevor Lawrence is now one of the highest-paid quarterbacks, he still threw 21 touchdowns to 14 interceptions last season, the sixth-most picks in the NFL.
The Jaguars are also two spots lower than the Patriots on the points allowed per game stat, ranked 17th with 21.8.
The Patriots will get a much-needed win and beat the Jaguars in a fairly close game. However, I imagine most, if not all wins the Patriots have this season will be in close games.
Week 9: At The Titans
(The Week 8 prediction against the Jets is also at Week 3.)
The Tennessee Titans were pretty similar to the Patriots last season. They won a few games with poor quarterback play. Now the Titans are the team that has recently gotten a new quarterback but he still isn’t doing better than the old one. So yes, Will Levis, you are the Bailey Zappe of the Titans currently. Throwing for 1,808 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions doesn’t scare me.
The Titans were also down towards the bottom for points per game last season, averaging 17.9, just four points more than the lowly 2023 Patriots. Tennessee also averaged just 12.8 more yards per game than New England last season.
The Titans have added Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to their receiving core but if you have Will Levis throwing to you, how does that help? The Patriots will win this game handily.
Week 10: At The Bears
This is an interesting matchup. Two of the top 3 players picked in this year’s draft are going head-to-head. I think this will be a fairly close game. Both teams have a lot of new players that will play key roles on offense. While the Chicago Bears have a lot of new offensive weapons in quarterback Caleb Williams and wide receivers Rome Odunze and former Charger Keenan Allen, they also were tied for first in interceptions last year with 22.
While the Bears’ defense isn’t as elite in other defensive stats, their defensive backs are ball hawks who can have the ball going the other way. If Caleb Williams lives up to the hype and Odunze and Allen mesh well with him, I see the Bears winning this game.
Week 11: Versus The Rams
It’s another tough matchup for the Patriots. The Los Angeles Rams are a formidable opponent with veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford, All-Pro receiver Cooper Kupp, and reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Puka Nacua. This is a high-powered offense.
Although one of the NFL’s best defensive players Aaron Donald has retired, the Rams used their first two picks this draft on defensive players. They got Florida State defensive end Jared Verse at No. 19 overall and Florida State defensive tackle Braden Fiske 39th overall.
In addition to their beefed-up front seven, the Rams defensive backs do not allow many completed passes, allowing the 7th lowest completion percentage in the league last season at 60.8%. Combine that with the team ranking 7th in passing yards per game at 359.3, and this team is going to be too much for the Patriots to handle.
Week 13: Versus The Colts
(The Week 12 prediction against the Dolphins is also at week 5.)
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson looks to be back this season. Maybe he’ll be injured again by this point if he keeps pulling RGIII plays by running recklessly, but if he is healthy, he will be a solid quarterback along with Michael Pittman Jr. as their number-one wide receiver.
Despite the Colts’ solid offense, their defense ranks near the bottom in multiple statistics. They were 24th in yards allowed per game at 349.8 last season and 28th in points allowed per game at 24.4. While this is going to be a close game with the Colts’ solid offense and the Pats’ great defense, Rhamondre Stevenson will have a big day on the ground and there will be a clutch defensive play by New England at the end to seal the victory.
Week 15: At The Cardinals
After a Week 14 bye week, the Patriots will face the Cardinals. Thankfully, the Cardinals are the weakest team they have played so far this season. Like New England, Arizona went 4-13 in the 2023 season.
Also like the Pats, the Cardinals suffered from poor quarterback play as Kyler Murray threw for less than 2,000 yards and threw just 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. Drafting Marvin Harrison Jr., the best wide receiver in the 2024 draft class will help a little bit, but it won’t help enough.
The Cardinals struggle to keep the opponents from scoring, allowing an average of 355.7 yards per game last season, ranking 25th in the league. Arizona also doesn’t do great at putting points on the board, ranking 24th in points per game at 19.4. The Patriots are still not one of the NFL’s stronger teams but they should have no problem beating this Cardinals team.
Week 16 and 18: Versus The Bills
Playing against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills is usually tough. Despite Allen’s interception issues, he is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Last season, the Bills ranked 4th in yards per game at 374.5 and 6th in points per game at 26.5. How will their offensive performance change with Stefon Diggs no longer on the team? They drafted Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman 33rd overall seemingly as Diggs’ replacement.
Drafting a rookie wide receiver to be your number-one wide receiver is not the same as having an All-Pro veteran receiver. In Buffalo, the Bills have the upper hand on the Patriots but it will be another close game. It’s funny how those divisional games work out like that, even though the Bills were a way better team on paper than the Patriots in 2023, both of their matchups were decided by a touchdown or less.
In the season finale, the matchup comes to Foxborough. I anticipate another down-to-the-wire game. The Pats’ defense is going to play large just like it did in their win against the Bills in October of last season. Additionally, the Patriots will also have a stellar offensive day, picking apart the Buffalo defense. New England allowed fewer yards per game last season than Buffalo, allowing 301.6 yards to Buffalo’s 307.2.
A wide receiver core comprised of a rookie, a second-year wide receiver in Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel, who was not even the Commanders’ number one option. This receiving core does not scare me. The Bills are one of those teams who are bound to have some crushing upset losses. They always do. This will be one of those games and the New England Patriots will end their season on a high note.
Week 17: Versus The Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers are another one of those very inconsistent teams, teetering between good and bad. Losing Mike Williams to the Jets tips them towards one of the worst teams. The Chargers were 5-12 last season, one game better than the Patriots. One of the Chargers wins was a horrible 6-0 game against New England in the rain.
The Chargers were one of the worst defensive teams last year, ranking 28th in yards allowed at 362.9. Justin Herbert is a great quarterback but he can only do so much.
Their run game was the worst part of their offense, ranking 25th at 96.6 rushing yards per game, one spot higher than the Patriots who had 95.7. My main point here is that if you are anywhere close to the 2023 Patriots in offensive stats, that’s really bad.
New England Patriots Predictions Summary
When it’s all said and done, I am predicting the Patriots to go 7-10. But it’s not all their fault, they have an incredibly tough schedule this season. More than a third of their games are against playoff teams from last season. That’s a lot for a team that only won four games in the 2023-24 season. Perhaps the NFL is getting back at them for all the Super Bowl wins from 2002 to 2019.
I am expecting that this team will get their sea legs under them four or five games into the season. There is definitely going to be an adjustment period. They have a new quarterback and a new head coach, and those are just the major new positions.
Do I think they are going to be better than they were last season? Absolutely. It would be difficult to replicate that season again, having seven games where they scored in the single digits. It was a disastrous 2023 season, to say the least, and I bet every Patriots fan is glad that we get to move on from it.
Sadly, with a 7-10 record, the Patriots will essentially be eliminated from playoff contention. Many other AFC teams would need to have a complete meltdown for there to even be a chance that the Pats make it. Only six teams in NFL history have made the playoffs with a losing record.
It’s a rebuilding year though. It’s not out of the ordinary for a young team to take a couple of years to develop into a playoff-caliber team. If the New England Patriots come back next season with the same determination, high football IQ, and good execution, I could see them making a playoff berth. The defense is already there. It’s just a matter of getting the offense in a good place.
