The National League Central will contain a surprise in 2025. The Chicago Cubs will win the division by one game. The acquisition of Kyle Tucker will make a difference. Otherwise, this division will be tight. The Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, and Pittsburgh Pirates will all win more than 75 games, and the division is very difficult to predict. That said the Chicago Cubs have the star power to prevail in the National League Central.
All of the games in this division will be competitive, even if these teams may not fare well in games against the National League cream of the crop. Could this be the Cubs year?
National League Central Winners: Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs can win the National League Central and finish 86-76. They will squeak out the National League Central by one game. The Chicago Cubs made the biggest acquisition in the division by adding slugger Kyle Tucker to their lineup. That was a significant upgrade when you consider the Cubs let Cody Bellinger go in a trade for relatively little gain with the New York Yankees. The Cubs had a +67 run differential last season, which suggests they can improve this season.
Cincinnati Reds: A National League Wild Card Team
The Cincinnati Reds will push the Chicago Cubs all season in a back-and-forth National League Central. The Cincinnati Reds will also make the playoffs. The Cincinnati Reds will be 85-77, one game behind the Chicago Cubs. The key question for them is whether Starting Pitchers Hunter Greene and Nick Martinez, starting pitchers can win 30 games for the Cincinnati Reds. If they do, watch out, the Reds could win the National League Central.
Milwaukee Brewers: Finish Just. Above .500
The Milwaukee Brewers will be smarting a bit from the departure of Closer Devin Williams. The Milwaukee Brewers will still be an above-average team, they should finish 82-80. The Milwaukee Brewers will benefit if Rhys Hoskins exercises his player option to return to the Milwaukee Brewers. He will be a middle-of-the-order presence once Christian Yelich is recovered from his back surgery. It is important for the Milwaukee Brewers that Yelich has an OPS of .900.
St. Louis Cardinals: Competitive
The St. Louis Cardinals will be competitive in the National League Central. The St. Louis Cardinals should be competitive in the National League Central division, and they are expected to finish with a record of 78-84, which will place them fourth in the National League Central. A key question for the St. Louis Cardinals will be if they can trade starting pitcher Sonny Gray, and his big contact, for some usable pieces.
Up and Coming Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a dangerous team. Do not make the mistake of thinking this is a run-of-the-mill last-place team. The Pirates should finish 74-88 in the National League Central. The Pirates will depend upon budding superstar Oneil Cruz. Aiming for a 30-homer, 30-steal magical season in 2023, a fractured ankle in April cut that dream short. He bounced back nicely in 2024, finishing with 21 home runs and 22 steals. He could join Barry Bonds as the only Pirates to have a 30-30 season.
Conclusion
The Chicago Cubs will win the National League Central with an 86-76 record. The Cincinnati Reds should finish 85-77 or only one game behind the Cubs. This battle will continue until the final week of the season with both teams making the MLB Playoffs.
The Milwaukee Brewers are going to hover around .500 all season and will finish 82-80. They will be smarting from the departure of Williams. The St. Louis Cardinals will fight to a 78-84 record. The Pittsburgh Pirates will be a competitive last-place team and will finish with a 74-88 record. Only 12 games will separate this competitive division.
