Let’s make one thing clear, this piece is not a hit on NL All-Star reserve Luis Arráez, a talented hitter in the world’s most prestigious baseball league. He’s won consecutive batting titles, in 2022 with the Twins and in 2023 with the Marlins. DJ LeMahieu is the only other player in the modern era that has won a batting title in both leagues. Arráez is in the record books because he’s good.
Rather, this is a critique of rewarding empty stats in a sport obsessed with analytics now. Arráez’s NL All-Star admission itself reeks of reputation over results. Don’t hate the player who just happens to be in the crosshairs this time, hate the game for being late to recognize the future, as always.
There Are Better NL All-Star Candidates at Second Base
For starters, Arráez has exclusively played first base for the San Diego Padres since May 23. That covers 40 of his 91 games played without accounting for his first base stints in Miami, DH appearances, and another San Diego start at first on May 11. Calling Arráez a second baseman at this point is generous.
Regardless, he shouldn’t be the top reserve option for the Senior Circuit in the 2024 All-Star Game. Here’s a table comparing Arráez to all of the second basemen who didn’t make the NL All-Star team. So, Ketel Marte is omitted.
To keep in the spirit of All-Star selections being primarily based on offensive numbers, none of these numbers are influenced by defense. All stats are pulled from FanGraphs.com and retroactive to July 7, 2024, when the NL All-Star reserves were announced. Take a look at the options:
| Player | Batting Average | OBP | Slugging | HR | SB | wRC+ |
| Player A | .288 | .350 | .408 | 6 | 29 | 116 |
| Player B | .264 | .319 | .419 | 8 | 6 | 107 |
| Player C | .312 | .346 | .381 | 2 | 3 | 110 |
| Player D | .263 | .329 | .434 | 12 | 2 | 121 |
| Player E | .273 | .375 | .408 | 6 | 8 | 121 |
For those who don’t know, wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) is an adjusted measure of a player’s value offensively. 100 is average. Anything above 100 is above league average, and falling below 100 is below average.
Now, with all of that in mind, select one player to be a reserve for the NL All-Star team. Got him in mind? Here’s the list decoded:
- Player A: Brice Turang (2.5 WAR as of July 7, 2024)
- Player B: Ozzie Albies (1.4 WAR)
- Player C: Luis Arraez (0.6 WAR)
- Played D: Jake Cronenworth (1.6 WAR)
- Player E: Jonathan India (2.1 WAR)
Congrats to everyone who picked Player C, if anyone did.
WAR was left off the table because it considers defense, where Arráez suffers immensely, but notice how he’s last on that list? He’s not only not the most valuable of those five players. Arráez is the least valuable of the bunch.
One could argue that runs were omitted intentionally, a stat where Arráez would lead the group and that’s true. That is a very team-dependent number, so it wasn’t included for anyone. Nor were RBI totals, which Arráez would’ve been last on the list for by a wide margin.
Player C, Arráez, only has batting average to fall back on. He only beats Player B, Albies, in wRC+. Teammate Cronenworth, Player D, who permanently switched over to second base in Arráez’s stead, was the only player with fewer stolen bases. Thanks to the worst walk rate on the list (3.8% as of July 7), Arráez is just third in OBP despite a robust batting average.
This isn’t a Steven Kwan situation where an insane batting average meets other skills. Arráez is on the NL All-Star team because he meets a sexy number and people know his name. He’s good, but it’s a shame that better options were ignored this year. Especially since 2024 isn’t even close to Arráez’s best batting average.
Arráez is a One-Trick Pony and It’s an Outdate Trick
It’s 2024, the baseball world is supposed to be over the batting average obsession, even when it hits that shiny .300 mark. Yes, Arráez leads the NL in hits, no easy feat. At the same time, there’s so much more to being a valuable baseball player, let alone an NL All-Star selection.
Let’s reflect on the other qualities Arráez brings to the diamond outside of singles. Does he steal bases? Very rarely, and that’s not something new. Does Arráez field at a high level? His Baseball Savant fielding metrics are laughably bad, which matches the eye test. As seen above, teams aren’t getting a slugger with Arráez.
It’s not a fluke that the NL All-Star has a negative WPA (win probability added) this season. While he successfully fills an important role, the ability to simply get hits, there’s not much more Arráez brings to the table. Whereas players like Turang, who leads the majors in dWAR (defensive WAR) as of July 12, can impact a game in multiple ways.
The world is familiar with the guy who can slap singles anywhere, even if one of his teammates (Jurickson Profar) is beating him in batting average. Let new, deserving players get an NL All-Star selection when they’re worthy. Especially as a reserve, which is selected through input from MLB personnel.
Maybe they’ll get it right in 2025.
About the Author
André is a University of Connecticut graduate. He has been in sports journalism since December 2020. Follow Andre on Twitter at @TowerTalkSports. You can read and follow Andre’s betting picks at Winners and Whiners.
