In a thrilling showdown at the China Open 2024 quarterfinals, Karolina Muchova faced Aryna Sabalenka, winning with a scoreline of 7-6, 2-6, 6-4. The 28-year-old, looking for her season’s first title and second on hard courts since 2019 in Seoul, improved her win-loss record in 2024 to 22-5. This result ended Sabalenka’s 14-match winning streak. The three-time Grand Slam champion was coming into this match after the back of winning the Cincinnati Open and the US Open title.
Muchova’s victory over the former World No. 1 was critical for her campaign. It showcased her ability to perform under pressure and added a significant achievement to her season, which hasn’t been the case in her pivotal matches. Muchova made it to the semifinals of the US Open earlier this month but fell to eventual finalist Jessica Pegula. This was her best Grand Slam result since last year’s US Open, where she also made the last four. Notably, she made her first Grand Slam final at Roland Garros last year, losing to Iga Swiatek.
Karolina Muchova vs. Aryna Sabalenka: Match Overview
Muchova was the more aggressive player in the first set, hitting five aces and winning 65% of her second-serve points. She tallied 18 winners compared to 15 unforced errors, highlighting her risk-taking style. The 26-year-old adjusted her game in the second set, firing off 13 winners, including five off returns, while the former world No. 8 managed only eight. This allowed Sabalenka to secure the second set and level the match.
In the deciding set, Muchova demonstrated her resilience by winning ten consecutive points at one stage. She ultimately won 63 service points throughout the match. The 28-year-old has now won all her matches against Sabalenka in 2024, which adds to her confidence as she moves forward. Sabalenka’s serve didn’t shine the way it had in the last few months, giving ten break points in the match. This result is also pivotal for the race to the Year-End WTA World No.1 between Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek. Swiatek, the current World No.1, withdrew from this year’s China Open due to physical problems.
Looking Ahead: Potential Semifinal Preview
Karolina Muchova will next face either Mirra Andreeva or Qinwen Zheng in the semifinal. Against Andreeva, the Olomouc native has no prior match experience, with a head-to-head record of 0-0. Andreeva has displayed strong form in the tournament, defeating Irina-Camelia Begu 6-7, 6-1, 6-1 in the round of 64, Donna Vekić 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the round of 32, and Magda Linette 6-1, 6-3 in the round of 16.
If Muchova faces Zheng, their head-to-head record stands at 1-1. Zheng has also performed well, beating K. Rakhimova 6-1, 6-1 in the round of 64, Nadia Podoroska 6-3, 6-2 in the round of 32, and Amanda Anisimova 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 in the round of 16. Zheng is the favorite in her quarterfinal against Andreeva, considering her recent form, which was paved by her first Olympic Singles Gold medal in Paris earlier this year. The former world No.8’s recent victory over Sabalenka has positioned her well for the upcoming semifinal as she aims for her first title.
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