After the 2021 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars were in a shallow place. The franchise had placed its future in Urban Meyer’s hands and selected a generational quarterback prospect, Trevor Lawrence, to guide them back to the top of the NFL. Meyer failed miserably, and the organization turned to former Super Bowl champion Doug Pederson to resurrect their image and Lawrence.
History Is Working Against Doug Pederson And The Jaguars
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The bar for success in Jacksonville is very low. Tom Coughlin had some success when the franchise entered the league but was dismissed in 2002 after a 6-10 season. Jack Del Rio led the team from 2003 to the end of the 2011 season and posted a 68-71 record with two winning seasons and one playoff win against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the 2007 season. The Jaguars cycled through four head coaches over the next decade over the next decade before hiring Pederson.
He has posted back-to-back 9-8 seasons in two seasons and achieved an all-time playoff victory with a 27-point comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers. However, upon a deeper investigation of the numbers, Pederson started his tenure with three wins in ten games. Between the 2022 and 2023 bye weeks, the Jaguars won 12 out of 15 games and went 1-1 in the AFC Playoffs. Jacksonville has lost eight of the last 11 games, with losses to the Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns to open the 2024 season.
Upcoming Schedule
The Jaguars face road games against the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football and a showdown with the Houston Texans the following week. If the Jaguars lose both games, Pederson will face very long odds to make the playoffs. Only six teams since 1979 have lost the first three games and made the playoffs. The Texans in 2018 are the last team to accomplish the feat. Only one team in NFL history lost their first four games and made the playoffs, the 1992 San Diego Chargers.
Pederson Looks To Avoid Plateau
Pederson wore out his welcome in Philadelphia in five seasons after winning the franchise’s first Super Bowl in his second season. After going 13-3 in 2017, he posted two nine-win campaigns before an awful 4-11-1 showing in 2020 that led to his dismissal. Pederson is a respected offensive mind, but his results as a head coach have been that of a one-hit wonder. He has only won more than nine games in a season once and posted four out of eight losing seasons.
The only franchise in the league that subsidizes sustained mediocrity is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who seem content to let Mike Tomlin post 9-8 seasons for eternity. Tomlin is defended vehemently by the national media for never having a losing season. If Pederson somehow rallies the Jaguars from an 0-2 deficit to another 9-8 finish, will he get the same defense as Tomlin? Probably not in Jacksonville, and not by NFL insiders.
Final Thoughts
Pederson took Nick Foles, a backup quarterback, on a magical run to beat Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in a Super Bowl for the ages. He oversaw the best years of Carson Wentz’s career and made an immediate impact with Lawrence. However, both ultimately regressed under his tutelage. Wentz is lucky to be holding a clipboard for the Kansas City Chiefs after a disastrous season in Washington in 2022. Whispers are growing louder about Lawrence, and the Jaguars can’t gamble $275 million that Pederson will turn it around.
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