The Illinois Fighting Illini are enjoying their best start to a season in 17 years. They have defeated three ranked opponents and sit at 6-1 with an outside chance at the newly expanded CFP. The biggest obstacle left in their path is this weekend in the form of the Oregon Ducks. Dan Lanning’s team is the number one team in the country and check in undefeated in 2024, including a huge win over Ohio State. The Ducks will play host to the Fighting Illini in a primetime Big Ten showdown Saturday afternoon on CBS.
The closest opponent that the Illinois Fighting Illini have faced that has been the caliber of Oregon was Penn State. The Nittany Lions won 21-7 and shined a light on some of the factors that separate Illinois from the upper tier of the Big Ten. If Illinois can improve on those deficiencies that led to their only loss of the season and combine that with a focus on what they have shone in recent weeks since the loss, they have a chance at pulling off the huge upset.
Tough Road Test At Autzen For Illinois Fighting Illini
The lights will be bright on the Illinois Fighting Illini for the second straight week when they take the field Saturday in Eugene to take on the top-ranked Oregon Ducks. Illinois shined in their marquee showcase last week at home in a 21-7 win over the Michigan Wolverines and find themselves in primetime again this week against a much tougher foe. Illinois has started 6-1 in 2024 and has a light schedule moving forward after this tremendous roadblock, but all attention will be at Autzen Stadium for this ranked Big Ten matchup.
Oregon started the year underwhelming inferior teams with close games and jagged execution. As 2024 has gone on, this Oregon team has found its groove and after a 32-31 win over the Ohio State Buckeyes, find themselves in the catbird seat for the Big Ten Championship. Their biggest test left is this Fighting Illini team and if Bret Bielema’s team can hone in on some specific aspects of the game, it could throw a wrench into their postseason plans and sew chaos into the college football world.
Stay Two-Dimensional On Offense
The Illinois Fighting Illini have gotten better at staying committed to the running game in recent weeks. The rushing attack had been lacking at the start of the season against quality opponents and posed a threat to the stability of the offense as a whole, but they have worked to make it a viable part of their offensive attack. Even with the hip injury to starting Running Back Kaden Feagin, back-up rushers Josh McCray and Aidan Laughery and even Quarterback Luke Altmyer have spear-headed a much-improved ground game.
The running game is going to be crucial for this Fighting Illini team. The Oregon defensive front poses the biggest threat since the Penn State loss and is capable of shutting down the rushing attack. The Ducks have shown vulnerability in their run defense though, ranking 48th in the nation in stopping the run. If Illinois can find success in the rushing game and be able to play two-dimensional offense, it will put the talented Oregon ends and linebackers in conflict. This will help the offensive line create holes for ball carriers and protect Luke Altmyer in the pocket.
Manage Line Of Scrimmage
Dan Lanning comes from the Nick Saban and Kirby Smart coaching tree. It’s no surprise that he has worked in his first few years at the helm in Eugene to strengthen the Oregon Ducks up front on the line of scrimmage. Oregon touts playmakers all over the field but the big boys up front set the tone for this team. Illinois has struggled at times this season to establish an advantage up front against quality teams and even teams that they should have no problem against. The physicality that the Oregon Ducks bring to the table is one of the biggest hurdles that the Illinois Fighting Illini have to clear.
It would be a miracle if Illinois wins the battle of the line of scrimmage in this one. If they want to win that is probably not in the cards. They will have the manage the line though, and ensure that Oregon can not establish an overwhelming advantage that sets Illinois back on offense or defense. These teams might buck Big Ten conventions and decide this game through the air rather than on the ground but having the ground game as a threat behind a winning offensive line is going to be a factor.
Get Home To Gabriel
Oregon’s offensive line is one of the best pass-blocking units in the country and with Dillon Gabriel dropping back, the Oregon Ducks’ passing game is a huge threat for this Illinois Fighting Illini secondary. The strongest unit for this Illinois Fighting Illini defense under Aaron Henry has been the defensive backfield. They force turnovers, halt the passing game, and provide valuable help in the running game. The defensive line has come into their own as of late and in this game, they are going to have to help out their secondary in their biggest test of 2024 thus far.
If the secondary is asked to play pass defense for an extended period, Oregon might break some plays open and turn the game on its head. TeRah Edwards and reigning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week Gabe Jacas are going to be called on to have huge performances and make an impact throughout this one by pressuring Dillon Gabriel and making sure he doesn’t have all day to extend plays and look for receivers downfield. If Gabriel has enough time, the Heisman candidate will shred the secondary, no matter how well they cover early in the play.
Tame the Two-Headed Monster
Dillon Gabriel is the Heisman hopeful in this game and has gotten better and more comfortable as the year has gone on. That is in large part due to a pair of his Oregon teammates who have emerged as the clear-cut top playmakers on the offense. Running back Jordan James and wide receiver Tez Johnson have carried the Oregon offense in rushing and receiving respectively, making them the top targets for the Illinois defense to focus on.
James will be a tough matchup for Illinois to contend with and behind a fierce offensive line, they have to get him on the ground when they have a chance. If Jordan James can break tackles and get deep into the Fighting Illini secondary with regularity, Illinois is in trouble. James has been a game breaker this season, rushing at 5.9 yards a clip. Johnson is Dillon Gabriel’s favorite target and Illinois has to stop him if they want to get the Oregon offense off the field. Gabriel will be looking for him on 3rd downs and if the Fighting Illini can disrupt their connection they improve their odds drastically.
Win Turnover Battle
Illinois has been great at forcing turnovers and limiting their own in 2024. Luke Altmyer has thrown just one interception on the season and it came late against Penn State. Turning teams over helped Illinois in their wins against two of their ranked opponents this year, Kansas and Michigan. In a matchup where they are the firm underdog, creating big plays like turnovers is going to be a must if the Illinois Fighting Illini want a chance to pull off the upset.
Altmyer must protect the ball and ball carriers have to be aware of opportunistic Oregon Ducks defenders looking to punch the ball out. When the Illinois offense has been down and under pressure, they have been more susceptible to turnovers like most teams are. Staying calm if this situation comes up is going to be difficult, yet necessary for the Illini. On the other side of the ball, the Illinois secondary has to take advantage of any chances to turn Oregon over. Xavier Scott, Miles Scott, Torrie Cox Jr., and Matthew Bailey have all forced multiple turnovers this year and may need to force more for an Illinois win.
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