The Illinois Fighting Illini host the Michigan State Spartans Saturday afternoon at Memorial Stadium in Champaign. After losing back-to-back games to the Oregon Ducks and Minnesota Golden Gophers, the Fighting Illini will try to get back on track against the 4-5 Michigan State Spartans. The blowout loss in Eugene at the hands of the top-ranked Ducks was to be expected but the close defeat to Minnesota at home was the first bad loss for Bret Bielema’s group of the season. Illinois needs to respond in a big way after their bye last week. A win would keep Illinois’ hopes of a ten-win season alive and propel them to a hopeful end to 2024.
Illinois is certainly capable of defeating the Michigan State Spartans in their first year under former Oregon State Head Coach Jonathan Smith. The Spartans have dealt with injuries all season and despite having solid talent throughout the roster, haven’t been able to get things going in too many of their games.
The Spartans underperform on the scoreboard by putting up more yards on offense and surrendering fewer on defense, yet placing lower in college football scoring ranks. Illinois is the opposite, and a concern for Illinois Fighting Illini fans is that the Minnesota loss was the first occasion of a regression to the mean. Although Illinois is favored and playing in front of the home crowd, this should be a good game.
Illinois Fighting Illini Play Host To ‘Sparty’
This Saturday the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Michigan State Spartans will battle at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, IL. Both Big Ten teams will be rested coming off a bye week for a mid-November tilt that is shaping up to be a good contest. Illinois is reeling after back-to-back losses. They were overwhelmed by the number one team in the country, the Oregon Ducks, on the road 38-9, and then fell at home to the Minnesota Golden Gophers 25-17 two weeks ago.
Bret Bielema’s squad has left the CFP rankings discussion in the rearview mirror and will now try to finish their 2024 off in a positive direction. A win against “Sparty’ would go a long way in turning the corner on a disastrous couple of weeks.
The Michigan State Spartans come into this game with hopes of becoming bowl-eligible in their first year under Head Coach Jonathan Smith. Injuries have knocked the Spartans off course so far this season but they have been resilient throughout the year, highlighted by a 32-20 victory over Iowa. The health of Michigan State’s sophomore quarterback might be the biggest indication of how this game will play out.
Aidan Chiles hurt his right hand in the Spartans’ blowout loss two weeks ago against the Indiana Hoosiers. He had the bye week to rest and recuperate and is listed as probable to play Saturday afternoon, but how well his hand has progressed in 13 days will be a major factor in determining how the Spartans will fare against the Illinois Fighting Illini.
Illinois Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
The injury to Chiles might be getting the most attention on the Michigan State side of things but the scourge of injuries on defense might be just as impactful. The defensive edge and the secondary have been hit particularly hard by injuries, especially against Indiana two weeks ago. With some players missing and some at less than 100%, unproven freshmen and the depth of this Michigan State team will be tested against Luke Altmyer and his fleet of receivers led by Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin.
Bryant and Franklin have been the go-to targets for Altmyer this season and when the passing offense is humming, they have big games. Collin Dixon and Malik Elzy can stretch the defense with their speed, and Hank Beatty and Tanner Arkin can work close to the line of scrimmage, but getting the ball down the field through the air is going to come down to Bryant and Franklin.
The injury-riddled Michigan State Spartans front will provide an opportunity for the Illinois offensive line to finally put together a solid performance in the pass protection game. Altmyer has been sacked 21 times in the last four games and Michigan State hasn’t recorded any sacks in their last five ballgames.
As the struggles up front have mounted, Bret Bielema has tried different combinations to see if any of them get better results. The final play of the Minnesota game was a strip sack from Altmyer’s blind side, so it’s safe to say that there is still work to do. With two weeks of practice to tinker with the line, Illinois should have a better outing against a weakened Michigan State front.
More Game Breakdown
It was announced during the bye week that Kaden Feagin will miss the remainder of the season for the Illinois Fighting Illini with a hip injury, meaning that the stable of running backs that have been filling in will see the field for the rest of the season. If Altmyer isn’t protected and the advantage on the perimeter isn’t as pronounced as it is projected to be, the running game could be the lifeline of the Illinois Fighting Illini offense. Josh McCray. Aidan Laughery and Ca’Lil Valentine bring different skill sets to the backfield and they could all be in play Saturday.
McCray will see most of the snaps and can use his 6-foot-1, 235 lb. frame to bruise the Michigan State Spartans up front. Laughery has been very effective in the delayed run and screen game for Illinois, even in losses, and could help move the ball with breather plays for the offense, and Valentine could break one or two plays in this one with his vision and breakneck speed. If Illinois leans heavily into the run game, Michigan State will need an answer for all three backs and Altmyer on options and scrambles.
Michigan State Offense vs. Illinois Defense
Signs are pointing toward Aidan Chiles leading the huddle for the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday afternoon when the offense trots onto the field. He was injured in the Spartans’ last game against Indiana and did not return. He is listed as probable to play and after having the bye week to prepare, Chiles is poised for this opportunity to get Michigan State back to .500 at 5-5 and 3-4 in the Big Ten.
Chiles will be short-handed if he does suit up in Champaign, missing a pair of offensive linemen. Injuries affected the offense in the trouncing Michigan State took at the hands of the Indiana Hoosiers as well, and while they open opportunities for other players in the program to step up, they also create chances for an Illinois defense that needs a good performance.
The loss against Oregon shattered any confidence the unit had built up in the first half of the season as seen by their poor showing against Minnesota, where they allowed just shy of 150 yards on the ground and couldn’t stop Max Brosmer from completing big passes on third downs. With a bye week to collect themselves, Illinois’ defense will look to right the ship. Should Chiles play, he will be looking for three main targets. Freshman Nick Marsh leads the group and will be the main focus for the defensive backfield and Jim Thorpe Award semifinalist Xavier Scott.
More Game Breakdown
The defensive backfield is still the backbone of Aaron Henry’s defense and needs to set the tone against the Michigan State Spartans receiving core early. After Marsh, Montorie Foster Jr. is the other big threat at the receiver position for Chiles to target. When Michigan State needs a 3rd & medium or 3rd & short, Chiles will look for #3. He may also look for the big Tight End Jack Velling, who is third on the team in receiving and has come up in some big spots for the Spartans this year. Illinois can not lose sight of Velling on delayed routes or extended plays, or else he will be a prominent weapon for Chiles in the passing game.
Illinois has plenty to worry about in the passing game but the primary objective against the Michigan State Spartans is stopping the rushing attack. Jonathan Smith brought his brand of football to East Lansing and even though the Spartans are below .500, they have shown an ability to run the ball against some teams. They have had a tough draw in 2024, facing some of the fiercest competition in the Big Ten, so they have not been able to consistently run the ball, but they have a formula for doing so. The running back tandem of Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter will take over this game if Illinois allows them to.
The defensive front had been improving as a pass-rushing force up until the last few games but the run defense was never completely buttoned up and Michigan State will look to take advantage of that early and see if they can go to it often. Aidan Chiles also presents an element of the rushing attack from the quarterback position.
With instability on the offensive line Chiles has had to scramble and escape the pocket frequently this season, which has been detrimental to his passing game by limiting his options and forcing him to make some tough decisions with the football, but he has been proficient in running the ball when he is on the move and if Illinois is not careful, he could make the difference with his legs more so than his arm.
Final Thoughts
Illinois has every opportunity to win this game. Michigan State is banged up and in flux at innumerable key positions. Their first year under Jonathan Smith isn’t going according to plan but they are very capable of pulling the upset off, especially if the Illinois Fighting Illini continue to struggle in the ways they have this season and not improve on their deficiencies. A couple of weeks ago this would’ve been considered a cakewalk but as Saturday afternoon approaches it has turned into a get-right opportunity for Bielema’s team.
If Illinois executes on offense, rebounds on defense, and tightens the screws that came loose in the Minnesota game, they will have no trouble ending their losing skid. It is up to them to enter Memorial Stadium and play like the team they have been for the majority of the season.
