Justin Steele came into 2024 after an outstanding 2023 campaign that placed him third in voting for the NL Cy Young Award. The beginning of the MLB season in North America was built around Justin Steele taking on the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers. The start set a precedent for the 2024 season, one of success for Steele but cut short by injury. Steele contributed to the Chicago Cubs rotation, but only in the instance when he was available for Manager Craig Counsell and the Cubs pitching staff.
Steele ensconced himself as the ace of the Chicago Cubs starting pitching rotation with his 2023 campaign and hoped to build on that season while further developing his game and pitching approach. His dream would be stunted by a pair of injuries in 2024 that kept Justin Steele out of the rotation for a significant portion of the season. The drawbacks in 2024 set up a situation for Justin Steele to be hungry to validate his 2023 season with a comeback season in 2025. That is because of the hectic hand that was dealt to him this year for the Chicago Cubs.
Bad Opening Day Omen
Justin Steele came into 2024 with a bit of momentum in terms of career trajectory. The southpaw had finished 2023 with a third-place finish in voting for the NL Cy Young Award, something that was a long shot going into the 2023 season. His performance let fans fantasize about what was to come with the 2024 season, only for those hopes to be dashed on the first day of the regular season for the Chicago Cubs.
Justin Steele took on the defending world champion Texas Rangers on Opening Day for the Chicago Cubs and held them to one run through 4.2 innings before suffering a hamstring injury trying to field a ground ball down the first-base line. Steele went down and couldn’t continue in the game, setting him up for what ultimately would be a bad omen for the 2024 season. Steele missed all of April and a chunk of September with injuries in 2024 and despite mimicking much of the success from his 2023 season, didn’t have the same effect.
Heavy Two-Pitch Mix
When Steele was able to take the mound for the Chicago Cubs he was fairly effective. The southpaw had a 5-5 record with a 3.07 ERA over 134.2 innings in 24 starts. The Chicago Cubs offense couldn’t support Steele in many of his outings, leading to the pedestrian 5-5 record. Regardless, Steele retained much of the success he had in 2023 when he finished third in voting for the NL Cy Young Award.
Steele touted his low-to-mid 90’s fastball and wipeout slider that helped escalate him to his spot atop the Chicago rotation. Steele was more aggressive in and above the strike zone in 2024, missing more bats with fastballs at the letters this year compared to last. Part of the reason for this was that Steele cut back on the use of his other pitches. The left-hander threw his fastball or slider 90% of the time in 2024, with his curveball, sinker, and changeup accounting for the other 10%.
As Justin Steele matures, he might be accentuating what his strengths are. In 24 starts in 2024, this extreme reliance did not come back to bite him but it is helpful to know that moving forward he has three other options in his back pocket if he needs them. In 2025, health notwithstanding, if Steele is looking to improve his game, mixing in more of his off-pitches could be a way to go if he wants to get back into the Cy Young conversation.
Fitting Into the Rotation
With the rise of Shota Imanaga for the Chicago Cubs in 2024, there was less of a burden on Steele to carry the top of the rotation as a lefty. With Steele out of the spotlight for the season’s opening weeks, he was able to be an addition to a pre-existing staff that performed well. He was also able to scale back his workload in his outings. With more help around him and with Chicago playing in tighter games, there was less of a need for Steele to overextend himself.
Compared to 2023, Steele threw fewer pitches and worked fewer innings in 2024, while maintaining his level of success, only having an ERA .01 higher than his 2023 clip of 3.06. While it wasn’t the season he might’ve wanted in 2024, Justin Steele had another solid season for the Chicago Cubs and his play can inspire hope for his own and the team’s potential for 2025. Steele portends to fit in the rotation after Shota Imanaga but ahead of other candidates like Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and others. The availability of Jameson Taillon could also impact Steele’s standing in the rotation as well.
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