The stage is set for the 2025 NCAA Tournament Final Four matchup between the Duke Blue Devils and Houston Cougars to play for their spot in this year’s National Championship Game. Both of these teams have been among the best of the best all season and have secured their place with repeated impressive performances throughout the tournament. Tip-off for this game is scheduled for Saturday, April 5, at 8:49 p.m. ET at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas with CBS broadcasting the game.
Duke (35-3) enters this game as arguably the most complete roster left standing. The Blue Devils are led by projected 2025 No. 1 NBA Draft pick Cooper Flagg. However, they have advanced past all of their opponents not just on his talents alone. Duke has been able to impose their dominance over opposing teams with the help of their frontcourt and disciplined defensive play. Meanwhile, Houston (34-4) has been more reliant on its signature defensive identity imprinted into them by their Head Coach Kelvin Sampson. This playstyle has allowed them to cause problems for every offense they have faced while also increasing their offensive efficiency.
The Cougars are looking to capture their first national title, while Duke aims to continue its storied March Madness legacy. With both teams ranked among the best in historical metrics, this Final Four clash promises to deliver a battle between two of college basketball’s best.
Game/Team Matchup Info
Oddsmakers have set Duke as a 4.5-point favorite over Houston, with the over/under for the game set at 135.5 points, according to BetMGM. Duke’s high-powered offense will be tested by the Cougars relentless defense, setting up a battle of strength versus strength.
Duke ranks No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency and has one of the most well-rounded scoring attacks in the nation. The Blue Devils have been red-hot throughout the entire tournament. From beyond the arc, they enter this game shooting 38.6%. From inside of the arc, they are shooting 58.5%. However, their highest efficiency comes when they are at the free throw line where they are shooting at 79%. This makes one of the most efficient teams in the county.
Houston on the other hand, focuses its energy on making the lives of their opponents as difficult as possible. The Cougars will enter this game with the top defensive efficiency ranking in the country allowing 59.2 points per game in the tournament. Beyond the numbers, this game is also a matchup of contrasting styles. Duke will rely on its size and offensive versatility, while Houston counters with its tenacious perimeter defense and physicality in the paint. The winner will be the team that best imposes its identity on the game.
Duke’s Keys To Victory
The Blue Devils have a major advantage in the size department, with no player in their starting lineup standing shorter than 6-foot-6. This advantage will give them the edge when it comes to rebounding, rim protection, and defensive matchups. Against Houston, Duke will need to win the battle of the boards and capitalize on as many second-chance opportunities as it can.
Flagg has been and will continue to be the focal point of Duke’s offense, but no one should think that he is Duke’s only weapon. The Blue Devils also have Tyrese Proctor, Kon Knueppel, and Khaman Maluach who have all shown they are just as capable of stepping up when the moment demands it and delivering in key moments. With Duke having so many options offensively when it comes to generating quality shots for themselves or their teammates, that will not be a problem.
Duke’s offense also thrives in transition, the Blue Devils have shown that they will punish teams that fail to get back on defense. If they can keep up their high-tempo approach in this game and avoid getting bogged down in half-court sets. They will have a chance to force Houston to play out of their selves and grab control of the game. The key for Jon Scheyer’s squad will be execution—limiting turnovers, making crisp passes, and finishing strong around the rim.
Houston’s Keys To Victory
The Cougars’ identity under Sampson has always been defense, discipline, and toughness. Houston ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency and has held each of its last three opponents under 60 points. Against Duke, their mission will be to contest every shot, limit open looks from three, and force turnovers with relentless ball pressure.
A major X-factor for Houston will be its three-point shooting, which has quietly been among the best in the nation. The Cougars lead the country in three-point percentage (39.8%) with Milos Uzan and LJ Cryer shooting over 42% from beyond the arc. If they can stretch Duke’s defense and knock down outside shots, they’ll put pressure on the Blue Devils to adjust.
Additionally, they must find a way to take away Duke’s size advantage. While they have no way of magically having their entire team grow a couple of inches overnight, what they can do is rely on their quick feet, help defense, and rebounding fundamentals which have all gotten them to this point. If the Cougars can slow down Duke’s offense and turn this game into a low-scoring, grind-it-out contest, they will have a strong chance of pulling out the win.
Player To Watch For Duke: Cooper Flagg
All eyes will remain on Flagg. The freshman has lived up to the hype and put forth a dominant run through the tournament. Now just two games away, he will look to continue to keep it rolling and lead his team with his versatility, defensive instincts, and elite scoring ability. This has made him a nightmare matchup for any opponent.
Although Flagg’s impact extends beyond just scoring. He’s also a strong shot-blocker, rebounder, and playmaker. Houston will likely send multiple defenders his way every time the ball is in his hands, but if he can find open teammates and continue his efficient shooting, Duke will have a good shot at continuing dancing.
Player To Watch For Houston: LJ Cryer
Cryer has been Houston’s most consistent offensive weapon averaging 16.4 points per game while shooting 42.4% from three. The senior guard brings championship experience and has shown the ability to deliver in the biggest moments. He will need to do that once again in this matchup.
If Houston will pull off the upset, Cryer will need to be at his best. That means creating his shots, knocking down threes, and providing steady leadership on both ends. His ability to penetrate defenses and make tough shots under pressure will also be key to Houston’s success.
Final Thoughts
These teams have handled their business to be one of the last two of the four teams standing. This game features another matchup of contrasting styles, and will likely come down to the final minutes and whoever can execute in the key moments.
Even though Duke enters the game as the favorite, Houston has everything it needs to win this game. If the Cougars can muck up the game, and force Duke into taking tough shots, while also capitalizing on their open looks from three, they could end the night shocking the entire basketball world. However, the same could be said for Duke, if they can play their game, using their size and overall talent to their advantage then they will be just one more win from acquiring their program’s sixth National Championship.
