The time has finally arrived for the Kansas City Chiefs. They will begin their run by hosting the Houston Texans in the divisional round of the AFC Playoffs. The matchup features the No. 4 seed Houston Texans (11-7) visiting the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs (15-2). The game takes place on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. EDT at Arrowhead Stadium and will air on ESPN and ABC.
This upcoming game marks a rematch for these teams from their first meeting in Week 16 of the regular season. Kansas City also hosted that game and emerged victorious 27-19. Despite the Texans having a shaky end to the regular season, they have the momentum and confidence they have been looking for after their 32-12 victory in the Wild Card Round against the Chargers. However, defeating the back-to-back reigning and defending Super Bowl champs at their stadium will be no small task for Houston, especially in the playoffs.
Kansas City not only enters into this game with the league’s best regular-season record but they are also led by Patrick Mahomes. As a starter in the NFL, he has never failed to advance to the AFC Championship Game. Kansas City certainly has the postseason experience on their side in this matchup. Meanwhile, Houston, led by second-year Quarterback C.J. Stroud, looks to build on its Wild Card win against the Chargers and pull off the biggest upset of the season.
Game/Team Matchup Info
Kansas City enters as a 7.5-point favorite, per ESPN odds, with the over/under set at 42.5. The Chiefs managed to secure the lone first-round bye, a luxury earned by their consistent regular season dominance. Houston arrives into this game surging as a team after their commanding victory over the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend.
In their previous meeting back on December 21, the Chiefs managed to secure a decisive victory in that matchup because they were able to convert on 60% of their red zone opportunities compared to Houston’s 33%. Mahomes threw for a touchdown and ran for one in this game, while the Chiefs defense forced two interceptions. Houston struggled to protect Stroud in this game, a factor that could once again haunt the Texans and influence Saturday’s result.
A Mahomes-led Chiefs team is currently 15-3 in the postseason, compared to a Stroud-led Houston team that is 2-1 in the playoffs. Mahomes has started in all 18 of those playoff games. In those games, he has completed 456 of 672 passes for 5,135 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, along with 524 rushing yards. Compared to Stroud’s four touchdowns and one interception in his three games. Very different sample sizes, but when it comes to the playoffs more times than not, the experience ends up being the difference down the stretch. It is the difference between which team can advance to the next round, and which team has their season come to an abrupt end.
Kansas City Chiefs: Playoffs Consistency and Dominance
The Chiefs during this Mahomes-Andy Reid era have been unstoppable in the divisional round. Entering this game, they have a 6-0 record at this stage, with Mahomes throwing 13 touchdowns in this round alone with no interceptions. Kansas City’s offense enters ranked second in scoring in the NFL, and will once again rely on their quarterback to lead the way to a playoff win.
This time around, Kansas City has some new faces on the offensive side of the ball with rookie Wide Receiver Xavier Worthy who has emerged as one of the top pass-catchers on this team. In Week 16, Worthy recorded seven receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown in their first meeting against Houston. Then there are Wide Receivers Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and DeAndre Hopkins who have also been new additions to this offense.
Hopkins, a late-season pickup, has played in 10 games and currently sits with four touchdowns. That is third-best from their receiving players. Brown, on the other hand, missed a large chunk of the regular season due to suffering an injury in the preseason and has only played in two games for Kansas City. His impact has already been felt across the board for their offense translating in the stat sheet for players like Worthy and Mahomes.
Then there are the more familiar faces, some returning old ones with Kareem Hunt back with the Chiefs and having himself a solid regular season campaign. In 13 games he finished with 786 rushing yards with seven rushing touchdowns. Then there’s old reliable, Travis Kelce who remains Mahomes’ go-to target, providing veteran leadership and clutch performances. Defensively, leading this side of the ball are Chris Jones, Nick Bolton, and Trent McDuffie. Each player solely leads their respective group on this defense which ranks ninth in total defense and fourth in scoring defense.
Houston Texans: Rising Stars and New Challenges
Houston’s offense centers around Stroud and top wideout Nico Collins, as the team’s primary playmakers. Collins has been among the NFL’s top receivers this season, ranking third in yards per route run. However, injuries to other receivers have made him into their only consistent threat in their passing game. The Texans also have a respectable rushing attack spearheaded by Joe Mixon who finished the regular season with 1,016 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. Mixon is also coming off a 100-yard rushing performance in their win against the Chargers.
On the other side of the ball, the defense is led by their edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Both players ranked in the NFL’s top seven for pass-rush win rate. Their ability to apply consistent pressure to Mahomes can be the difference between winning and losing this game, especially given Kansas City’s vulnerable offensive tackle situation.
Despite Houston’s recent success, they still face significant hurdles. Kansas City’s playoff experience and home-field advantage pose a daunting challenge, and they have shown as much during this run. Houston will need to be able to put together a near-perfect game if they hope to have any chance of pulling off the upset.
Kansas City Chiefs Players To Watch
Offensively, the player to watch heading into this game will be Mahomes. Come playoff time the Chiefs’ quarterback has been the centerpiece of their success. His postseason record speaks for itself, and he has historically risen to another level when the pressure has been the highest. No one should be expecting any different from Mahomes this Saturday given what he’s already been able to accomplish. The stakes could not be any higher than this season and it all begins this weekend.
Defensively for the Chiefs the player to watch will be McDuffie for the sole fact that he will likely be the primary defender shadowing Collins. Collins, who is Houston’s primary target at this point of the season, is coming off seven receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown performance. Collins can take over a game, however, on the flip side, McDuffie can shut down any opposing top receiving threat in a game.
In their meeting earlier this season, Collins saw four targets when McDuffie was the primary defender, and he had three catches for just five yards on those plays, according to Pro Football Focus. McDuffie likely won’t shadow Collins the whole game, but he will be a big part of limiting Houston’s most dangerous receiver.
Houston Texans Players to Watch
Similarly to Kansas City, offensively for the Texans their player to watch is Stroud. He did not play his best despite his team winning. Stroud will have to deliver a clean performance if Houston hopes to stand a chance against a tough Chiefs defense. Down the stretch of the season, KC has been able to force turnovers more consistently and largely limit opposing offenses.
Defensively for Houston, their player to watch is going to be Anderson Jr. He will need to exploit Kansas City’s largest weakness heading into this game and that is their offensive tackles. If successful, their chances of winning this game increase drastically, but it’s not enough to only disrupt Mahomes. They must get him on the ground early and often if Houston is to have a real shot of winning this game.
Final Thoughts
The Kansas City Chiefs enter the divisional round rested, with the experience and home-field advantage. Their balanced roster and Mahomes’ postseason success make them the favorites. Houston, while coming off an impressive win, still faces an uphill battle against the league’s top-seeded team.
Kansas City’s ability to execute efficiently on both sides of the ball should secure them a path to their seventh straight AFC Championship Game. For the Texans, this matchup serves as an opportunity for a young, promising roster to take the next step and enter into that next tier of team with the NFL’s elite if they can knock off the Chiefs this Saturday.
