The Kansas City Chiefs, at 14-1, will face the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) on Christmas Day on the road in their Week 17 matchup at Acrisure Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. EST, and the game will be streamed on Netflix for national broadcasts. This game carries significant implications for both teams. For the Steelers, a victory keeps their AFC North division title hopes alive. While they’re not in the running for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, two more wins to close out the regular season would at least secure them one home playoff game.
The Chiefs have already clinched the AFC West title and are now chasing the conference’s top seed and the lone first-round bye in the playoffs. While they could secure it in Week 18, they’ll hope to handle business this week to give Patrick Mahomes and other key players the chance to get some much-needed rest before their postseason begins.
Game/Team Matchup Info
Kansas City enters this game as 2.5-point favorites, according to ESPN odds, with the over/under set at 43.5 points. These odds give the Chiefs their respect by making them favorites, but only slightly, given their injuries and the fact this game is on the road. It also reflects both teams’ strong defensive showings this season, hinting at a potentially low-scoring affair.
Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 against the Steelers for his career, including the regular season and playoffs. His last meeting against Pittsburgh was back in 2021 during the AFC’s Wildcard Round when the Chiefs took care of business against the Steelers at home, winning 42-21. However, head-to-head, Mahomes is 3-2 against Russel Willson in his career, although those losses came when Wilson wore a different uniform than the one he does now.
Both teams enter this game with stout defenses, with the Chiefs coming in ranked as the 4th defense in the NFL. As for Pittsburgh, they sit at No. 8 in total defense. With both of their defenses’ strongest areas being their respective play against the run, Kansas City ranks 3rd-best in the NFL. The Steelers are right behind at No. 4. They remain quite similar on the other side of the ball, with the Chiefs ranking 13th in both total and passing offense but having the 25th-ranked red zone efficiency offense. Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 18th and 25th in passing, and their red zone efficiency is 31st in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Keys to Victory
Kansas City, entering this game, will want to emulate a similar game plan as they did against the Texans, who also have a formidable defense. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have had success in the quick passing game and leaning on their running backs. With some questions still surrounding their offensive line, this is a game plan they can replicate and have success with.
On average, against the Texans, Mahomes got the ball out of his hands within 2.5 seconds after it had been snapped. This helped the Chiefs’ offense get healthy, and their players became comfortable in this Andy Reid system with their respective roles. Kansas City will want to keep this style of offense going this week, especially against a Steelers pass rush led by T.J. Watt.
Defensively, it is still uncertain, but the Chiefs could be without their defensive anchor, Chris Jones, this week, which significantly hampers their chances for a win. This means the rest of the defensive line must step up in his absence if he cannot go. Fortunately for Kansas City, they have shown this season that they can do just that, especially with George Karlaftis leading the way, currently the team’s sack leader for the season with seven.
With him leading their pass rush this week, it will be vital for him and the rest of the defensive front to contain Pittsburgh’s ground game and prevent Russell Wilson from becoming a rushing threat. This should be their top priority in slowing down this offense, which relies heavily on these two things.
Pittsburgh Steelers Keys to Victory
For the Steelers, their best football this season has come when they’ve had wide receiver George Pickens out on the field, and he is returning from injury this week. Without him, their offense has sputtered and been inconsistent, averaging 167 yards per game. Now, with him returning this week, and with the likelihood of the Chiefs looking to completely shut down their running game, the Steelers’ best chance of having some explosive plays to open up the rest of their offense will be dependent on Pickens ability to stretch the field which in turn would open opportunities for their other playmakers.
Defensively, this team’s identity truly lies. Watt, their x-factor, spearheads their defensive unit. However, he is not the only one, with this side of the ball stacked on every level with playmakers from Cameron Heyward on their defensive line to Minkah Fitzpatrick at their safety position. Up and down, this unit doesn’t just have household names but players who deliver week in and out to make this team one of the more dominant defensive units in the NFL.
This same defense will have to look to take advantage of the Chiefs’ revolving door of an offensive line, along with capitalizing on their red-zone struggles. Although the Steelers have struggled at times, if they can keep the Chiefs out of the endzone and turn this game into a slugfest, they certainly have the players to win a turnover battle and dominate the time of possession, which will be their best chance of securing a win.
Players to Watch for the Chiefs
On offense, the player to watch in this game will be Travis Kelce. Mike Tomlin, the Steelers’ head coach, had a lot of praise for him. Kelce does much more than what the final stat sheet shows, and his savviness and connection with Mahomes make him a force on this offense. While his stats this season haven’t been up to his usual standard, he has still come through when needed and make plays in key moments.
Now, in a game like this, where the stakes are as high as they are, Kelce has a long track record of showing up in the biggest moments, and whether it comes in the form of being the perfect decoy or Mahomes go-to target, this week, Kelce’s fingerprints will be all over how this game shapes out.
Defensively, Karlaftis will be the player to watch. With Jones likely sidelined, Karlaftis must take on a larger role this week. However, through 16 weeks, he has shown the ability to do so, given his recent performances as the Chiefs’ most effective pass rusher and play disruptor. His efforts will again be heavily relied on going into this game, as the Chiefs’ focus will largely be two-fold: first, containing Wilson in the pocket and second, limiting Pitsbrugh’s rushing game as much as possible. Making their offense one-dimensional would allow their secondary to hang back and their defensive front to tee off.
Players to Watch for the Steelers
For Pittsburgh, Pickens is the player to watch. If he returns as expected, as the team’s most effective pass catcher, he has a chance to swing this game heavily in either direction, depending on how he performs. With his ability to stretch the field and make contested catches, no matter who the Chiefs put on him, they will have a long day trying to contain him.
Then, it will only take a couple of deep shots to be completed to rejuvenate the Steelers’ passing game. That, in turn, will help open up the rest of their offense and put the pressure back onto a banged-up Chiefs defense that has struggled this season with limiting big plays.
Defensively, Watt is the player to watch. Without question, he is one of the league’s most disruptive players and will be a thorn in Kansas City’s offensive line side throughout the entire game. Fourth in the NFL with 11.5 sacks, a team-high six forced fumbles, and 18 tackles for loss, his dominant showing this season has been a key reason why the Steelers are as successful as they are. And suppose this game happens to be close late into the fourth quarter. In that case, Watt is the player you want on your team because of his ability to get to the quarterback himself or draw attention from his teammates, so they have clear sack options.
Final Thoughts
Given these two teams’ styles, this Christmas Day game will likely not be very pretty. Its high playoff implications will put even more strain on two teams dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball. However, if there is one team that has shown all season and for years now that they rise to the occasion in moments like this, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs.
This season alone proves that fact. Although this game is on the road, the Chiefs understand what’s at stake and how to get the job done. Now, that does not mean Pittsburgh is simply going to roll over. They also have a lot to play for in this game. With securing their division being at the top of the list, they also want to see how they stack up against the defending champs. This game promises to be a playoff-like atmosphere with two of the best in the AFC going at it.
