After a long, hot summer and a dramatic, chilly fall, the 111th CFL Grey Cup is finally here. The Toronto Argonauts (10-8) and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-7) will battle in Vancouver, B.C., on Sunday night, the second Grey Cup matchup between these two teams in the last three years.
The Blue Bombers have been to four straight Grey Cups, but after starting the season 0-5, hopes of returning to a fifth were extremely low. On the other hand, the Argos played their first nine games without their starting quarterback, going 5-4, and went 5-4 in the season’s final stretch, clinching a playoff spot in the final weeks. It’s come full circle for Toronto, as they are without Chad Kelly again after a gruesome injury against Montreal last week. Kickoff is at 6:00 pm EST.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers: The Class of the CFL
For the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, there are many different storylines heading into the championship game. For starters, this is their fifth straight appearance in the big game. They are 2-2, losing the last two in 2022 and 2023. In their quest for the rare three-peat in 2022, the Argos beat them 24-23 due to the last-minute heroics of emerging superstar Chad Kelly. Secondly, the Bombers started the season 0-4, 2-6 to be more specific, and it was fair to assume, at that point, that their CFL domination was over. From August 1 onward, the Bombers went 9-1, winning the West Division and inevitably punching their ticket to the Grey Cup.
In the West Division Final, Winnipeg beat the Saskatchewan Roughriders 38-22 in a contest that wasn’t ever in question. The Bombers were up 24-9 at the half and never looked back. QB Zach Collaros went 19-for-26, 301 yards, and four touchdowns while running back, and 2024 Most Outstanding Player Brady Oliveira ran for 119 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. Receiver Kenny Lawler caught four passes for 177 yards and 3 scores. Defensively, Winnipeg held the Riders to 283 passing yards and 77 rushing yards and got to the quarterback twice.
Game Sets Up to Be an Exciting One
Winnipeg finished the regular season seventh in the CFL in points per game, averaging 24.8, a number that is reflective of their slow start. Over their last nine games, the Bombers averaged 28.7 PPG, which is more of a representation of what this offense can do. They have the third-best rushing attack in the CFL, averaging 111.7 yards on the ground per game. They had a down year through the air, averaging 260.2 yards per game.
While there is star power all over the Blue Bombers’ offense, the defense has been the star of the show all year long. They are first in the CFL in points allowed per game, 20.3, yards allowed per game, 328.6, and passing yards allowed per game, 234.8.
On paper, with Toronto’s star quarterback on the sidelines, this matchup seems to be a mismatch. However, in the season series between these two teams, the Argos won them both, 16-14 and 14-11, and Kelly only played in one of them. Toronto created six turnovers between the two games, and even though the Bombers sometimes moved the ball, they struggled to put points on the scoreboard. There is no team Winnipeg scored less against this season, scoring only 25 points against the Argos in 2024.
Toronto Argonauts: The Role of the Underdog
If you’re a gambling individual, Kelly‘s absence from this game has made the Argos massive underdogs in the betting world. They are 9.5 point underdogs and are +320 to win, while the Bombers are -420. If giving you those numbers is like speaking to you in Greek or a language you don’t know, then all you need to know is Vegas is giving the Toronto Argonauts almost no chance to win this game.
While Chad Kelly is an incredible talent, the Argos played without him for the first half of the season and can beat opponents in many different ways. You need to look no further than last week in the East Division Final for evidence of this. The Argos were in Montreal to take on the 12-5-1 Alouettes, which was a game that they probably should’ve lost on paper. The Argos won 30-28, and the offense only scored one touchdown. You read that right, only one.
In the first half, Janarion Grant ran a Montreal punt 71 yards for a touchdown, Franklin had an interception for a pick-six, and Damonte Coxie caught a touchdown pass. Those were the only three times the Argos got into the endzone, and with the help of three second-half field goals, it was all they needed. The offense was mediocre for much of the game, but the defense created six turnovers, and the special teams were flawless, as usual. Toronto has proven all year that they don’t need a star quarterback to win football games.
More Game Breakdown
As we’ve already mentioned, the Argos will be without Kelly on Sunday. However, as far as backup quarterbacks go, there are few with as much experience as Nick Arbuckle. After a long CFL career, Winnipeg cut Arbuckle last off-season, and if Toronto wins, this will be hands down the signing of the off-season in the CFL. In limited action this year, Arbuckle completed 65% of his passes (65-for-100), throwing for 799 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. He was also the QB that led the Argos to beat the Bombers in their first meeting of the season.
The Argos were first in the CFL with 28.6 points per game, second in rush yards per game, 121.3, and third in total yards per game with 368.7. Yes, some of these numbers were with Kelly behind the helm, but the Argos have had three different starting quarterbacks this year and are no stranger to the “next man up” mentality. A big part of Toronto’s point production that goes under the radar is their special teams. Grant has been destroying teams all year, including last week, when the lights were the brightest. In the regular season, Grant had 1,989 yards and four touchdowns on punt and kick returns.
On defense, the Argonauts were in the middle of the pack in the majority of categories, except for the one that may matter the most on Sunday. In 2024, the running game is where the Bombers have caused most of their damage. Luckily for the Argos, their run defense is second in the CFL, allowing only 85.1 yards per game.
Final Thoughts
As good as the Alouettes were this season, there are no teams in the CFL that match up better than the Argos and the Bombers. 14 Argos and 18 Bombers who were in the 2022 game, are playing on Sunday. The Argos have won in the last seven times they have made it to the Grey Cup. For Winnipeg, this is their 5th straight trip to the championship, and the window may not be open for too much longer.
If you’re asking me for a prediction, the Toronto Argonauts can win ball games in all three phases. They score points on offense, special teams, and defense, and their run defense should be able to stop the most dangerous running back in the CFL. Both games featuring these two teams this year were low-scoring, and I think we can expect the same. Give me the Argos beating the Blue Bombers 22-19.
For those of you who only watch the Grey Cup or Super Bowl for the half-time show, The Jonas Brothers will be hitting the stage tonight. If you’re an American reader or new to the CFL, take a break from the late NFL slate and watch this game before Sunday Night Football. It’s going to be a great one.
