Short-track racing is an art. Only a few can navigate the tight confines of tracks less than a mile. Denny Hamlin has been the gold standard of short-track racing since his rookie year in 2006. Richmond Raceway is the home track of Denny Hamlin, who grew up in Chesterfield, Virginia, just 26 miles away from Richmond. With five wins at Richmond and the defending winner from earlier this year, he will be the undoubted favorite going into the weekend.
Denny Hamlin’s Success
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Denny Hamlin is one of the best short-track drivers in all of NASCAR. He has won 14 races on tracks a mile or less with 49 Top 5’s and 66 Top 10s in 107 short track races, with five of the 14 races being won at Richmond, the second most wins among active drivers. Kyle Busch. Earlier in the season, Denny Hamlin got the lead in overtime, taking the lead coming off pit road. The race went further than the scheduled distance of 400 laps. The race required an extra seven laps due to cautions late in the race.
The dominant cars in the Toyota Owners 400 were Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson, who led a combined 372 laps between the two. Joey Logano was able to steal second place as Larson and Truex were fighting one another, coming together after the checkered flag. Truex Jr. was undoubtedly upset at the way the race played out, having a one-second lead before the caution came out just half a lap away from taking the white flag and winning the race. Larson got loose and got into Bubba Wallace, allowing Denny Hamlin to win the race off pit road and eventually the win.
The Strategy
Richmond is a 3/4 mile D-shaped oval with 14 degrees of banking in the turns 8 degrees of banking on the curved front stretch and 2 degrees of banking on the backstretch. The race is scheduled for 400 laps, which is up to 300 miles. The first stage is 75 laps; if the race stays green the entire way, expect the drivers to go to the end of stage one without pitting. If tires are as big a factor as in the spring, we could see a pit stop halfway through stage one.
The second stage is 160 laps and will certainly see a pit stop in stage two. The question of when to come is key, factoring in the tire wear and the drop off between fresh tires and old tires. If there is a significant drop-off, expect to see several drivers attempting to grab track position by short pitting (pitting earlier than the typical strategy). This could be key in how to set yourself up for the third and final stage of the race.
The final stage is 170 laps; Truex had what would have been the winning strategy had the race stayed green in the spring. Truex pitted 16 laps before Denny Hamlin. Hamlin was able to close the gap but was not able to get around Logano and Truex. Using the same strategy minus the late caution, the money stop will be around lap 334. If the tire wears the same, this would be the plan. If the tires have a longer life span, then expect the driver to push to the end of the fuel winter because, pitting under green, you would lose two laps.
Time and Channel
The Cookout 400 at Richmond Raceway will take place at 6 pm Eastern Time on the USA Network. Coming off a two-week break due to NBC covering the Olympics. Weather could play a factor depending on the impact of Hurricane Debby. At the time of writing, Hurricane Debby has made landfall in Florida.
The rains that follow could have an impact on if the track can stay dry enough to get the race in. The race in the spring was impacted by rain and debuted the use of wet tires in a points-paying race. NASCAR will race on a wet track, but if it is raining hard enough to form puddles, then NASCAR will not send the cars out with wet tires.
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