The Buffalo Bills enter Sunday night’s game against the Baltimore Ravens in an unfamiliar position. Buffalo is a 1-point home underdog at the time of publication. According to ESPN, Buffalo has never been a home underdog in franchise history. Being a home underdog is not unprecedented in the 2024 NFL Playoffs.
The Houston Texans were a home underdog against the Los Angeles Chargers last week and the Los Angeles Rams were an underdog on a neutral field last night against the Minnesota Vikings. Will the Buffalo Bills turn this unprecedented scenario into an AFC Championship berth?
Buffalo Bills To Face Stiffest Test Of Season
The Ravens are now a 1-point favorite at the Bills for Sunday’s divisional game, according to @ESPNBet.
Buffalo has never been an underdog in its previous 18 home playoff games since entering the NFL in 1970, per @ESPNStatsInfo.
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) January 14, 2025
The Baltimore Ravens travel up to Highmark Stadium with a spot in the AFC Championship Game up for grabs. These teams played earlier in the season in Baltimore and the Ravens dominated 35-10. This rematch has the makings of an instant classic between the top two finishers in the NFL MVP race. Ravens Quarterback Lamar Jackson, coming off an MVP Award last season, had the best regular season of his career. He was sixth in the league in passing yards and second in passing touchdowns and QBR during the regular season.
Jackson had a middling game against the Bills earlier this season going 13-of-18 with 156 passing yards with 3 total touchdowns (2 passing and 1 rushing.) Bills Quarterback Josh Allen, the favorite to win NFL MVP next month, was tied for seventh in the league in passing touchdowns and led the league in QBR during the regular season. He had his worst game of the year earlier in the season against Baltimore. Allen finished 16-of-29 with 180 passing yards and no touchdowns. Allen must play up to his MVP standards for the Buffalo Bills to pull off the upset victory.
Final Thoughts
The betting line for this AFC Divisional Playoff Round matchup is understandable. Baltimore has the head coaching advantage and the superior running game. Ravens Running Back Derrick Henry had a career resurgence in his first season with the team. He was second in the league in carries, second in rushing yards, and tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns.
Even though Baltimore has a better head coach, offensive skill players, and defense, the quarterback who plays better will determine the winning side. Allen has a far superior playoff resume over Baltimore’s star quarterback. That fact is where the betting line is misguided, and the Buffalo Bills should be favored. Allen has been a historic playoff performer while Jackson has had many playoff struggles.
