The NHL offseason is officially upon us. The Stanley Cup has been awarded, the draft has come and gone, and the free-agent frenzy is in the books.
Now it’s time to settle into the summer by making power rankings and predictions that are way too early and create narratives that could be shattered by November. That’s what the offseason is all about.
Division by division, we’ll examine how each team fares heading into next season based on how it looked last year and the changes it has made thus far.
In the Atlantic Division, the season ended with the four most predictable teams finishing the year in the postseason. Will this year be a changing of the guard? Or will it remain the status quo? Let’s get started.
8. Buffalo Sabres
Last year: 39-37-6 (84 points), 6th in Atlantic
In 2023-24, the Buffalo Sabres did what they seem to do every year. They shatter any positive expectations of them by Christmas. Then, in the season’s last two months, they go on a magnificent run, making us all believe it will be different next year.
The bottom line is that this roster hasn’t changed enough to expect this team to turn any significant corner.
They bought out goal scorer Jeff Skinner and lost Victor Olofsson and Zemgus Girgensons to free agency. That created a healthy chunk of cap space, but they failed to take advantage of it.
They added to their depth by signing Jason Zucker, Sam Lafferty, and Nicolas Aube-Kubel and trading prospect Matthew Savoie for Ryan McLeod. These pieces will undoubtedly help the bottom six and add significant speed that this lineup has been missing.
Any real change is going to come from the players they already have. Dalhin, Cozens, Power, Thompson, and Tuch are all good, talented players, among others not on that list. However, they have proven year after year that they can not get the job done together, and it will be hard to see how next season will be any different.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen seemed to present himself as the goalie of the future, but the sample size is still too small to trust fully. He was 27-22-4 last season, with a .910 SV% and a 2.57 GAA.
The Sabres also signed veteran backup goalie James Reimer to battle Levi for the number two spot.
The one thing that gives some hope to this situation is bringing back long-time former Sabres coach Lindy Ruff. He deserves a chance to work his magic, but after missing the playoffs for 13 years, it’s hard to predict this year will turn out any different.
7. Ottawa Senators
Last year: 37-41-4 (78 points), 7th in Atlantic
By all accounts, this team has had the talent to make it to the playoffs for the last two seasons, at least. You look around this roster, and there are good players everywhere.
Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle are young stars who are the cornerstones of this team. Claude Giroux is one of the best leaders in the NHL and still produces at a high level. Shane Pinto was suspended for half the season last year, but fresh off an extension, a full season will significantly boost his offensive production.
Then, you add Batherson, Sanderson, Zub, and Chabot, and they have all the makings to compete.
Travis Green replaces D.J. Smith behind the bench, who was fired part-way through last season. Smith is a good coach who will always have a job as an assistant, but it was clear last year that this team lacked systems, discipline, and, most importantly, an identity. Green will have his work cut out for him, but the bones are in place for him to be successful.
So far this offseason, the Sens traded for goaltender Linus Ullmark, and signed veteran winger David Perron. Ullmark should add some much-needed stability between the pipes, while Perron will not only add 20 goals, but also his leadership, alongside Giroux, will be very welcome in this locker room.
You could argue that Ottawa should finish higher in the Atlantic. But, much like Buffalo, this roster continues to shoot itself in the foot and struggle to get to the next level.
It will be interesting to see what changes Coach Green will implement.
6. Montreal Canadiens
Last Year: 30-36-16 (76 points), 8th in Atlantic
Unlike the Sabres and the Senators, the Canadiens were supposed to be bad last year and have had that expectation for a few years now. They finished at the bottom of the Atlantic, and realistically, they probably won’t make the playoffs in the upcoming season. However, the way this team has been built has been very impressive.
Cole Caufield, Kirby Dach, Nick Suzuki, and Juraj Slafkovsky are this team’s young core and the future of the franchise. Dach was injured all of last season, so seeing him with this group for a full year will be really interesting to watch. The whole fanbase declared Slafkovsky a bust last October, but after 20 goals, 50 points, and a massive payday, the sky seems to be the limit for the 20-year-old winger.
Xhekaj, Savard, and Matheson are steady players on the back end. Trading goaltender Jake Allen last spring ends the triangle of goalies who were in and out of the crease last year, which should give confidence to Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau, as there is no doubt who the goaltenders will be this season.
The Canadiens have some impressive young players and a good mix of veterans, but a lot of the credit needs to be given to head coach Martin St. Louis. The structure and work ethic that this team plays with every night gives them a chance to be a dark horse this year.
5. Boston Bruins
Last Year: 47-20-15 (109 points), 2nd in Atlantic
After Bergeron and Krejci retired last summer, and Hall and Bertuzzi left in free agency, the Bruins were expected to take a major step backward in 2023-24. Clearly, the exact opposite happened. The Bruins had the Atlantic lead until the last week of the season, winning a round in the playoffs before losing to the Florida Panthers.
That said, this should be the year when the Boston Bruins begin going backward.
Marchand and Pastrnak are back and are still at the top of their game. McAvoy, Lohrei, and Lindholm are all stud defensemen, while Jeramy Swayman is an elite goaltender. For these reasons, they should still be sniffing around the top three of the division.
However, their biggest issue last year, especially in the playoffs, was scoring goals, and they didn’t do much to fix that problem heading into October.
While they did sign Elias Lindholm, which bolsters the middle of the ice, they also lost Jake DeBrusk to free agency, so the Lindholm signing is more lateral as far as production goes.
They also signed the big D-man Nikita Zadorov, but again, the defense wasn’t a glaring issue for them.
Ullmark was a huge part of their recent success. Trading him and picking up Korpisalo is a massive downgrade.
Boston always finds a way to win and be in the thick of the division race, so predicting them to finish fifth is a little bold. However, the top of the Atlantic is getting stronger, and the Bruins have not done enough to keep up.
4. Tampa Bay Lightning
Last Year: 45-29-8 (98 points), 4th in Atlantic
The additions and subtractions from the Tampa Bay lineup were front and center on July 1. Long-time captain Steven Stamkos is gone, and Jake Guentzel is in. Stud D-man Mikhail Sergachev is out, and Ryan McDonagh is in. These moves have pros and cons, but much like Boston, this seems more lateral than an upgrade.
They still have the majority of their core intact. Any team with Hagel, Kucherov, Point, Hedman, Gentzel, and Vasilevskiy will be competitive.
Yet last year, they struggled for most of the season and were no match for the Panthers come April.
Vasilevskiy is coming into the season healthy, which was not the case last year. That is an immediate boost.
Their top-six forwards are strong, and their defensive unit is fairly deep. Time will tell if that bottom-six is enough to make a serious push for the top of the division.
3. Detroit Red Wings
Last year: 41-32-9 (91 points)
Considering how competitive this division is, putting the Red Wings at number three in the Atlantic might be the boldest prediction on this list. There are many question marks on this roster, and many things have to go right, but Detroit was tied for the last Wild Card last year, and they seem ready to make that final push.
Patrick Kane will have a full season with the club, while Debrincat, Larkin, and Raymond all have one full year together under their belts.
Vladimir Tarasenko may not be what he once was, but adding his production is huge for this team with the departure of Sprong and Perron.
With Shayne Gostisbehere heading to Carolina, 56 points are walking out the door as well. However, adding Gustafsson to the mix automatically makes them a better defensive team.
Taking away some offense to solidify the defense is the right move for this team, especially with all the uncertainty in the net. Cam Talbot, Jack Campbell, Ville Husso, and Alex Lyon are all on this roster as of now, and it’s hard to pick one guy to trust with the bulk of the starts.
There’s little room for injuries or prolonged slumps, but if those things are avoided, this could be the year Detroit returns to the post-season.
2. Toronto Maple Leafs
Last Year: 46-26-10 (102 points), 3rd in Atlantic
For the last six years, few teams have had consistent regular season success like the Toronto Maple Leafs. Every year, they have over 100 points, are in the top three in the Atlantic, and every year, multiple players have incredible regular seasons. For the Leafs, it will always come down to playoff success, or lack thereof. However, this is a regular season power ranking, so let’s get into it.
This may be the best roster this team has put on the ice since returning to the playoffs eight years ago.
On July 1, they signed Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to bolster their defense. Tanev is one of, if not the best, defensive defenseman in the NHL. He is the perfect fit for Morgan Reilly, as he is more offensively creative. Ekman-Larsson resurrected his game in Florida and is a great addition to their defensive depth.
Auston Matthews is the best goal-scorer of this generation. So much so that scoring 40 goals a couple of years ago was a massive disappointment. In his eight-year career, he has only scored less than 40 goals twice, which was at the beginning of his time in the NHL.
Mitch Marner and William Nylander are almost a lock to each hit 90 points themselves while having Domi and Knies for another year adds some stability around those top players.
Between the pipes, the Leafs extended Joe Woll this summer and signed Anthony Stolarz to form a new tandem in Toronto. On paper, this is an excellent duo.
Woll has shown all the signs of having a very high ceiling in this league. His biggest problem has been his health.
Stolarz was the best backup goaltender last year by a mile. In 27 games, he had a 16-7-2 record while posting a 2.03 GAA and a .925 SV%. The issue that will face him this year is that he has never played more than 27 games. Woll will not be starting 50 games, so seeing how Stolarz will adjust to the heavier workload will be interesting.
There has been much speculation about Marner’s future in Toronto. Despite their regular-season success, the Leafs have won only one playoff round since this regime got together. Marner seems to be the one everyone thinks needs to go, but for now, this is the roster, and we’ll see how it all shakes out.
1. Florida Panthers
Last Year: 52-24-6 (110 points), 1st in Atlantic
Normally, it would make sense to think that after making it to the Stanley Cup Finals two years in a row, the Panthers would drop off this year. However, you have to go back only a few years to see the Lightning did it before the Panthers dethroned them as the kings of Florida.
They did lose Montour and Tarasenko, but for the most part, this team is relatively the same.
The one curious thing to look out for is their goaltending. Sergei Bobrovsky is one of the best goalies in the world, but he had the best backup goalie in the world behind him for the last two seasons. Without Stolarz, it will be interesting to see how that plays out.
If you watched the Panthers play, they were the best team in the Atlantic from start to finish despite being behind Boston in the standings for most of the year. Until they, or another team, prove otherwise, there is no reason to dethrone the Panthers as the kings of the Atlantic Division.
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