=
The Arizona Wildcats (24-12) and Duke Blue Devils (33-3) are set to meet in the Sweet 16 of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Thursday, March 27 in Newark, New Jersey. This East Region matchup features two powerhouse programs with National Championship aspirations. Both teams took different paths to reach this stage, but now only one can move on to the Elite Eight.
Duke enters the matchup as the top seed in the region, having dominated Mount St. Mary’s and Baylor by an average of 33.5 points. Arizona, the No. 4 seed, survived a tough test against Oregon, rallying from a 15-point deficit to secure a hard-fought 87-83 victory. The two teams met earlier this season in Tucson, with Duke securing a 69-55 win. Now, the stakes are even higher as they meet with an Elite 8 berth on the line.
With both teams featuring dynamic playmakers and deep rosters, this Sweet 16 matchup promises to be one of the most anticipated games of the entire tournament. Who will win?
Game/Team Matchup Info
Duke enters this game as a 9.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM, with an over/under set at 152.5 points. The Blue Devils are also listed at -425 on the money line, while Arizona sits at +330.
The Blue Devils have the No. 1 overall ranking in KenPom, featuring the nation’s best offense and fourth-ranked defense. They are led by freshman star Cooper Flagg, averaging 16 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists in the tournament. Duke’s offense has been efficient and balanced, with Tyrese Proctor and Sion James providing strong perimeter play.
Arizona, ranked 13th in KenPom, counters with the 12th-best offense and 28th-ranked defense. The Wildcats rely heavily on Caleb Love, who scored 29 points in their win over Oregon. Tobe Awaka has also been a force on the boards, grabbing 14 rebounds in the second-round victory. Arizona will need to play a near-perfect game to keep pace with Duke’s high-powered attack.
Arizona’s Keys To Victory
For Arizona to pull off the upset, Love must continue his hot streak. The senior guard has been a proven scorer in March, averaging over 20 points per game in the tournament. However, he struggled in the first meeting against Duke, shooting just 28% with Proctor as his primary defender. Love needs to be more efficient for the Wildcats to have a chance.
Rebounding will also be crucial. Arizona ranks 16th nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Awaka has been a dominant presence on the glass. In the first matchup, Duke limited Arizona to just 6 offensive boards. If the Wildcats can create second-chance opportunities, they can disrupt the Blue Devils’ defensive rhythm, and take advantage.
Lastly, Arizona’s defense must find a way to slow down Flagg. The freshman forward torched them for 24 points in their first meeting, scoring 16 in the second half alone. Tobe Awaka, Carter Bryant, and Trey Townsend will likely take turns defending Flagg, but it will take a collective effort to contain Duke’s star player.
Duke’s Keys To Victory
Duke’s success starts with their elite offense, which has been nearly unstoppable in the tournament. The Blue Devils are shooting over 50% from the field in March Madness with Proctor, Flagg, and James all contributing. Arizona’s defense ranks outside the top 25, meaning Duke should have plenty of opportunities to score.
Defensively, the Blue Devils must replicate their performance from the first matchup. They held Arizona to 55 points and neutralized Love, forcing him into tough shots. If Proctor can again limit Love’s efficiency, Duke will have a significant advantage.
Rebounding will also be key for Duke. Arizona has one of the best offensive rebounding units in the country, but the Blue Devils dominated the glass in their last meeting. If Duke controls the boards again, Arizona’s scoring chances will be limited, and they will be allowed to dictate the pace of play.
Player To Watch: Caleb Love, Arizona Wildcats
Love is the heart and soul of Arizona’s offense. The senior guard has played in countless big games and knows how to perform under pressure. Against Oregon, he led the Wildcats with 29 points, showcasing his ability to take over when needed.
Love has plenty of history against Duke from his time at North Carolina, averaging 15.8 points in nine games against the Blue Devils. However, in his last four matchups with Duke, he has struggled with efficiency, shooting just 28% from the field. If Love can find his shot early, Arizona will have a much better chance of pulling off the upset.
Player To Watch: Cooper Flagg, Duke Blue Devils
Flagg has lived up to the hype in his first NCAA Tournament. The 6-foot-9 forward is averaging 16 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists per game, showcasing his versatility on both ends of the floor.
In Duke’s win over Arizona earlier this season, Flagg took over in the second half, scoring 16 of his 24 points after halftime. His ability to score inside and outside makes him a nightmare matchup for Arizona’s defense. If Flagg has another dominant performance, Duke will be difficult to stop.
Final Thoughts
Arizona faces an uphill battle against a dominant Duke team that has looked nearly unstoppable in the tournament. The Wildcats will need a huge game from Love, strong rebounding from Awaka, and an improved defensive effort to keep this one close. They must also find a way to slow down Flagg, who has been one of the best players in March Madness.
Duke, on the other hand, enters this matchup as the clear favorite. The Blue Devils have been firing on all cylinders and already proved they can handle Arizona earlier this season. If Proctor controls the backcourt and Flagg continues his stellar play, Duke should be well on its way to the Elite 8.
