The Arizona Diamondbacks are 48-44 and sitting pretty in the final NL Wild Card spot with five games remaining before the All-Star break. Just kidding, they are 45-47, with three of their past four losses coming thanks to a Paul Sewald blown save in the ninth. Sewald is 0-fer in his last three save opportunities, a span in which the D-Backs have carried the lead into the potential final frame of the game nine times. Arizona, which has navigated this season with numerous injuries, a lack of production from superstar Corbin Carroll, and a demanding July schedule, now have a problem at the closer spot.
Sewald, a mid-season acquisition last year, helped the Diamondbacks’ bullpen right the ship in 2023. However, after 11 straight saves to begin the year, the righty has allowed seven runs in his last three outings, each resulting in a heartbreaking loss for the Snakes. Manager Torey Lovello reiterated after Sewald’s most recent misstep that the 34-oid-year will still get the ninth inning, at least for now. In theory, Lovello showing support for Sewald is bright, but when the next save opportunity presents itself, should the former Seattle Mariner turned D-Back get the call?
The Case for Arizona Diamondbacks CP Paul Sewald Remaining the Closer
Last July, with the Arizona Diamondbacks nursing a 57-50 record, the NL West squad made a trade deadline move, shipping outfield Dominic Canzone, infielder Josh Rojas, and prospect Ryan Bliss to the Seattle Mariners for Paul Sewald. The right-hander saved 13 games in the final two months, owning a 3.57 ERA and 1.47 WHIP during that stretch. Sewald finished 2023 with a 3.12 ERA and a career-best 34 saves.
However, he saved his best for the postseason, throwing eight shutout innings between the NL Wild Card, NLDS, and NLCS, accumulating six saves and a win. Sewald’s numbers ballooned in the World Series, lowlighted by a blown save in the opener in Arlington, Texas. However, he still played a significant role in the team’s unreal run to winning the National League.
Sewald began his career with the New York Mets, going 1-14 with a 5.50 ERA in four seasons before his release. The Las Vegas native eventually landed with Seattle, where he orchestrated a wonderful 2.88 ERA in 171.2 innings. Since his debut with the Mariners, Sewald holds a 3.03 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 132 ERA+, and 11.9 strikeouts per nine, all mark a closer in Major League Baseball. Additionally, per Baseball Savant, he is in the 70th percentile or better in strikeout and walk rate.
The Struggles and Downfall of Paul Sewald
For all of Paul Sewald’s success in Seattle and last year’s postseason, the underlying numbers are a significant cause for concern. Entering Wednesday, Sewald owns a 5.03 FIP, well off his 3.93 ERA. He also had an FIP in the low fives during his short stint with Arizona circa 2023. The long ball has crushed the closer in his three blown saves this year and the blown save in last season’s World Series. Sewald is near the bottom of the league in barrel rate and average exit velocity per Baseball Savant.
Last year was the only season Sewald sat in the top half of pitchers regarding barrel rate, and with average fastball velocity, he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard. What is the most significant difference from years prior? A new career-low in whiff rate this season. Sewald gets swings and misses at his best, but in 2024, he has been near the worst among his peers in getting batters to chase.
Justin Martinez: Potential Successor to Sewald
Last season, Arizona had a glaring hole at the backend of their bullpen. Kevin Ginkel was excellent in a set-up role but struggled in the ninth. Ryan Thompson, like Sewald, lacks the overpowering arsenal, although he is a ground ball pitcher who tends to avoid the long ball. The obvious choice to replace Sewald among most fans remains hard-throwing righty Justin Martinez. He throws triple digits with a wipeout slider and splitter. Martinez owns near league-best marks in strikeout rate, whiff rate, barrel rate, and pitching run value, among others.
He owns a sparkling 1.18 ERA and, unlike last year, has limited walks and the blowup inning. More importantly, Martinez’s Baseball Savant page resembles the best baseball closer, Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase. If Sewald does the D-Backs in one more time, Lovello will need to look elsewhere for a closer, and the most apparent choice already sits on the 26-man roster in the form of Martinez.
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