The Alabama Crimson Tide will face the Saint Mary’s Gaels in the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament. One of these teams will be in the Sweet Sixteen. This game will take place in Cleveland on Sunday, March 23. The game will air on TNT. Alabama is from the SEC. Saint Mary’s is from the West Coast Conference. Alabama is 26-8. Saint Mary’s is 29-5. Alabama beat Robert Morris and Saint Mary’s beat Vanderbilt. Do you think Saint Mary’s can eliminate a second SEC team?
Alabama’s Keys To Victory
Alabama is a 5.5-point favorite in this game. First and foremost Alabama must live up to what the betters expect. Alabama is a No. 2 seed and Saint Mary’s is a No. 7 seed. If things go as expected, or chalk, Alabama should win this game.
For Alabama, Grant Nelson must be healthy and play a full game. Nelson is a 6-foot-11 senior forward. Nelson has an injured knee and only played near the end of their 1st round win over Robert Morris. His presence would be huge against a Saint Mary’s team that is good at offensive rebounding.
Nelson said after the 1st round game, “I’m feeling pretty good, so I’m sure it’s going to be the same — like where I’m pretty much questionable, and it’s going to be day-to-day,” Nelson said. “But I’m going to see how I feel, and it’s going to be a game time decision. But I’m going to stick with my rehab plan, and it seems to be working.”
A third key to victory for Alabama in this matchup is related to Nelson’s health. Rebound the ball on both the offensive and defensive ends of the court. Saint Mary’s is first in the nation in team rebounding efficiency. Alabama cannot allow the Gaels to push them around on the glass. The tall Nelson must play and play well for Alabama to prevail in the rebounding battle. Alabama must win the rebounding battle to win this game.
Saint Mary’s Keys To Victory
The first key for Saint Mary’s is to rebound the ball. The Gaels are first in the nation in rebounding efficiency. The Crimson Tide are good as well, ranking 23rd in the nation. This suggests that whichever team prevails in the rebounding battle will win.
The second key for Saint Mary’s is to control the pace of the game. The Crimson Tide wants to run. They average over 90 points a game. Saint Mary’s on the other hand scores just above 68 points per game. That is a plodding pace and much slower than the Crimson Tide wants to play. Expect them to try to play at a slow pace. This is so important that a game in the 80s or 90s will go the way of the Crimson Tide. A game in the 60s will favor the Gaels.
The third key for the team is related to the first. They need to take advantage of their size. Here is their starting lineup. Augustas Marciulionis is a 6-foot-4 guard, Mitchell Saxen is a 6-foot-10 center, Luke Barrett is a 6-foot-6 forward, Paulius Murauskas is a 6-foot-8 forward, and Jordan Ross is a 6-foot-3 guard. Saint Mary’s is tall. They must take advantage of this.
What Is Next?
The winner of this game will advance to the Sweet Sixteen to face the winner of the Wisconsin-BYU game. Those are fairly evenly matched teams, though Wisconsin is the slight favorite to prevail. The Badgers, if they beat BYU, will present a difficult challenge for either Alabama or Saint Mary’s.
Prediction
The Crimson Tide were 6th in the Ken Pom rankings. The Saint Mary’s Gaels ranked 21st. Saint Mary’s ranked below conference mate Gonzaga in these rankings, despite beating them twice. This will be a closer game than people think, especially with the rebounding efficiency of Saint Mary’s. The second-seeded Crimson Tide just have too much talent. They will win 70-66.
Conclusion
The Crimson Tide are only 5-5 in their last 10 games. Alabama is averaging 92.4 points per game. Their opponents have averaged 88.4 points per game. They play a bunch of high-scoring games. The Saint Mary’s Gaels are 9-1 in their last 10 games, with their only loss coming at the hands of the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Saint Mary’s is averaging 68.2 points per game while their opponents have averaged 59.4 points. In contrast to Alabama, they play low-scoring games.
