The old saying goes, be careful what you wish for because you might get it. For decades people have been begging for a playoff. In 2014 we got our wish with a four-team playoff. Since the playoff, we have gotten chaos, controversy, and a lot of blowouts. Adding eight more teams is destined to add more blowouts in hopes of having more good games but history tells us it simply will not happen. How will this new format work out?
Historic Blowouts
We have had great games such as Ohio vs Georgia in the 2022 Peach Bowl or Michigan vs Alabama in the 2024 Rose Bowl. However, most games have been blowouts. From Clemson shutting out Ohio State 31-0 in 2016 and Alabama shutting out Michigan State 38-0 in 2015 and let’s not forget the national title game in 2023 where Georgia beat TCU 65-7 in the largest blowout in a national championship game ever.
The greatest lie football fans will say is they want parity, they want to see new teams in the playoffs. That historically has been a lie. The most watched games of the year are Ohio State vs Michigan and Georgia vs Alabama, two games with the big dogs doing battle. You have to go down to eighth to find a “group of five” team in one of the most-watched games of last season. of Colorado State faced “Coach Prime” and Colorado before the Buffs fell off the wagon. People don’t want parity they want their team to win.
Second Tier Teams Argument
With the expansion to 12 teams into the playoff the argument is no longer between the who should be in between Michigan and Alabama or Ohio State and Oklahoma trying to split hairs between one-loss teams. The argument now turns into the 2-3 loss Oklahoma State and Penn State teams that have not beaten a team of note and have in normal circumstances or lost games they had no business losing.
In 2019 the final year before the COVID redshirt players were a factor, the argument would be Utah who did not play a single team in the top 10 and lost to an unranked USC and No. 13 Oregon. Or the three-loss Auburn team who lost to Georgia, LSU, and Florida but beat Alabama in the final game of the regular season with Memphis taking the final conference championship bid who lost to Temple.
This is what the College Football Playoff is descending to. Fighting over which 2-3 loss qualifies teams makes those big Saturday night games in the regular season less important. With the elimination of divisions, we could see Ohio State and Michigan play three times, not only watering down the regular season game to the point of pulling starters, but we could see it in conference championship games as well. Unless the Group of 5 champion is close in the standings the conference championship game is just as meaningless as a regular season game.
The Playoff Sweet Spot
The best number for the Playoff is eight. That gives you your four conference champions a group of five champions and three at-large bids. We all would love to see a rematch of Ohio State and Michigan every once in a while but in the 12-team playoff, it is destined to not just one rematch but two rematches in a season. With an eight-team playoff, the regular season still has significant meaning and you don’t lose everything when you have a bad game at an inopportune time like Georgia last year.
If we go back to 2019 again and look at seven, eight, and nine (again the top group of five is in auto bid) the argument becomes more interesting. We have a two-loss Baylor, a three-loss Wisconsin, and a two-loss Florida. The Gators two losses came to Georgia and eventual national champion LSU while Wisconsin’s losses came to Ohio State twice and an upset by Illinois. Baylor lost to Oklahoma twice in two close games.
It is much easier and fun to argue the tough losses with great teams than split hairs with three-loss teams that lose games they shouldn’t. The eight-team playoff lets good teams in and weeds out the pretenders while allowing the good teams who lost a tough game to stay in but still put importance on every single game. That is not the system the College Football Playoff will be taking.
