The Belgium Grand Prix is a fan favorite. There are plenty of opportunities to overtake, and there always seems to be a spectacular crash. This is also one of two home races for the struggling Red Bull’s Max Verstappen as he was born in Belgium but runs under the Dutch flag. Several storylines will continue in Spa, Verstappen is frustrated with Red Bull and the declining performance, McLaren and Aston Martin Team Order Turmoil and is this the final race in a Red Bull for Sergio Perez?
McLaren Team Order Turmoil
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McLaren drama played out on International Television last week in the Hungarian Grand Prix. Much like in several Grand Prixs, the McLaren strategy put them in a tough spot. In Hungry McLaren panicked after Lewis Hamilton, and Charles LeClerc short pitted and pitted Lando Norris inadvertently short pitting Norris on teammate Oscar Piastri giving Norris a commanding lead after the pit cycle.
The now clearly inadvertent swap sent McLaren into yet another panic and for 15 laps tried to get a defiant Norris to give the win to Piastri despite making no sense in the driver’s championship where Norris sits second in the standings 76 points behind Verstappen. If these three points come into play later in the year this blunder will be the most historic in Formula One history.
Aston Martin had a similar situation further back on the grid except Lance Stroll did not give teammate Fernando Alonso the higher finishing position. Alonso had let Stroll through to give Stroll a chance to gain another position but was unsuccessful. Stroll was ordered to give the spot back to Alonso and Stroll refused.
Is Red Bull Collapsing?
Red Bull has been falling apart since Miami. Red Bull has not had the fastest car since China. This past weekend the frustrations boiled over on the radio. Verstappen is angry about the handling of the car and the unusual strategic nightmare calls. Verstappen told the media after the race:
We didn’t have the pace to fight McLaren today but then I think we could have still had a P3, The wrong strategy calls put me on the backfoot where I constantly had to fight people, trying to overtake, and it didn’t work today. The track is really hot and as soon as you get close to cars the tyres overheat and basically all of the advantage that you have with the tyres is not working anymore.
The task this weekend is only getting harder for Red Bull as Verstappen is going to take a 10-place grid penalty for exceeding the maximum amount of engine parts allotted for the season. Belgium is tough on engines but Verstappen has driven through the field before in Belgium but the car isn’t as good as it was years ago.
The silver lining for Red Bull is Sergio Perez had a great drive after yet another horrific qualifying session starting 16th and driving his way up to seventh. Perez potentially fighting for his seat has had great success in Belgium finishing in the points in seven of the last nine grand prixs and finishing runner-up to Verstappen the last two years.
Formula One Grid Shake Up Coming?
Belgium is the final race before the Summer Break. In the summer break, teams will pull the trigger on changing drivers and the rumor mill has been running wild on the changes coming. Everyone’s cards will be on the table for the final push and the path for the 2025 grid will be shaped a little more clearly.
The first rumor is that the lone American Logan Sargent is out at Williams. Sargent will be replaced by young phenom Kimi Antonelli. Antonelli is rumored to be the heir to Hamilton’s seat. Mercedes and Williams have had a driver development relationship as Mercedes supplies Williams with their engines. Anotelli would follow in the footsteps of Valtteri Bottas and George Russell to start at Williams and then at Mercedes.
The second big rumor is that Sergio Perez and Daniel Ricciardo are on the hot seat. A bad outing from both could lead to a major shake-up in the two Red Bull teams. Red Bull is rumored to be impressed by Red Bull junior driver Liam Lawson and will likely be on the F1 grid after the summer break in the RB the only question is who will be in the second Red Bull seat between Riccardo or Perez.
Belgium Strategy
If the tires are the same as in 2023 Pirelli will bring the C2 (Hard) C3 (medium) C4 (soft). The winning strategy last year from Red Bull was starting on the soft tires. The first pit stop came around lap 10-15. The second pit stop is a move to the medium tires through to lap 25-30 with the final stint going back to soft tires.
The second strategy that finished in the top five via Aston Martin’s Alonso he started on the mediums pitted for mediums on lap nine and finished on softs. that strategy allows a driver to be more aggressive and will be the preferred strategy if the track temp is hot. The weather calls for roughly a 50% chance of rain with the temperature being around 19 degrees Celsius (66 degrees Fahrenheit).
If rain comes into play expect Mercedes and Red Bull to outperform McLaren and Ferrari. Mercedes and Red Bull have shown in the past to handle the threat of rain better than anyone else. While the pit stop blunders have hampered Ferrari and McLaren in the past. The Belgium Grand Prix will be on July 28th at 9 am on ESPN and F1TV.
