The John Deere Classic, being held this week at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, will provide some great long-shot opportunities for golf bettors. With a relatively average field lacking much major star power, there are plenty of big-value plays to be had at the John Deere Classic. Sungjae Im is currently the favorite at +1200 at BetMGM, but with only seven players in the FedEx Cup Top 50, there is a good chance that a lesser-known player could bring home the John Deere Trophy this week.
Who will prevail?
TPC Deere Run – Who is Best Suited for this Course?
With a relatively wide-open layout and very little water in play, big hitters will likely have an advantage again this week at the John Deere Classic. However, with nearly every green featuring severe runoff areas and major undulations, solid ball striking and great putting will be just as important.
The 7,289 yard, par-71 layout was designed by five-time PGA Tour winner D. A. Weibring, an Illinois native whose goal in designing the course was to maintain the natural beauty of the area while still providing a challenge to PGA Tour players:
“It has all the things I think you’d like to have in a golf course,” says Weibring. “There are elevation changes, great views and scenery, hardwood trees. You have the Rock River complemented with small ponds and deep ravines… and best of all, there’s no real estate. What’s more, the natural features of the former Arabian horse farm high above the Rock River Valley have not been compromised.”
Top Picks for the John Deere Classic
The John Deere Classic has traditionally been a low-scoring event, with an average winning score right around -21. While the course is relatively open with few hazards, the longest hitters may be held back by elevation changes, multiple doglegs, and limited runout areas.
Who will fare well this week are players who can putt, and my choice to win overall is Denny McCarthy, currently at +2200 on BetMGM. McCarthy is a seasoned pro with ten Top 10 finishes in his seven-year PGA Tour career and two Top 10s already this year. He lost in a playoff to Akshay Bhatia at the Valero Texas Open in April, and he is poised for his first win.
With the odds sheet following the FedEx Cup points list, there is plenty of value to be found with some lesser-known players. Daniel Berger is a MASSIVE value, currently +6600 at BetMGM. Berger has four career wins and while he may be in a bit of a slump as of late, he has the game to deserve throwing a few bucks at an outright win or a Top 5 / Top 10 pick.
For other position picks, it’s hard to go wrong with Sungjae Im and Sepp Straka. While their outright win odds are a little low for my tastes, they’re both solid players and should provide some hedge against any major surprises. Jordan Spieth hasn’t seen a win in a while, but he is a great putter and will probably be in contention. Aaron Rai has also been playing well lately and he would be another sensible position play this week.
Though not the biggest tournament of the season, the players participating in the John Deere Classic this week will still be fighting for 500 FedEx Cup points and a pretty hefty paycheck. For many of these lower-ranked players, this could be the opportunity to get that first PGA Tour win, be it after one season on tour or seven. No matter who prevails, the John Deere Classic will undoubtedly deliver some low scores and exciting moments again this week.
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