For the ninth time in post-season history, the Dallas Stars (Minnesota North Stars) and the Edmonton Oilers will meet in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
In October, both teams were expected to be here. The paths taken, however, were much different.
In the summer, many players in Edmonton, including superstar Connor McDavid, used the words “Cup or bust” to describe the upcoming 23-24 season. After a 3-9-1, and a fired coach, the sky was falling in Edmonton.
An 8-game winning streak, 16-game winning streak, and two series wins later, McDavid and the Oilers are back in the Conference Finals, fighting for their first Stanley Cup Final.
In Dallas, the goal was the same, but the road was far less dramatic. The Stars finished the season in the top ten in goals for, goals against, and special teams. They were at the top of the league all year and clinched the division title in the last few weeks of the regular season. Now, for the second straight season, they are in the final four and need four more wins to get over the hump.
Oettinger is Shining Bright for the Stars
If you looked at goaltender Jake Oettinger’s stats, you would be impressed and would think he had a phenomenal season. He finished the season 35-14-4, with a 2.72 GAA and a .905 SV%. Not too shabby. But if you watched the games, you’d realize that it was very up and down, lacking consistency.
In the playoffs, however, he’s been as steady as they come. His SV% has jumped to a sparkling .918 and his GAA has dropped down to 2.09.
In the gambling world, over/under goal markets are usually set at around 6.5 goals per game. Over 70% of Stars games in the regular season went over the number, and Oetinnger’s spotty play had a lot to do with it. In the post-season, however, games that involved the Stars have gone over 6.5 total goals only three times.
Oettinger’s GAA tells the story, but to add to the point, he’s allowed only one goal in three of his last four games. With McDavid and Draisaitl coming down, he’s going to have to be rock solid, no matter how good the Stars’ defense has been.
Depth, Balance Define Dallas
For the rest of the Dallas Stars’ roster, depth has been key in returning to the Conference Finals. No player has more than 13 points, and only one forward has more than twenty minutes of ice time.
On top of all of that, the Stars have a perfect blend of youth and experience.
For youth, budding stars Robertson and Johnston top the list. Heiskanen and Stankoven are also great young players with game-breaking potential.
In the experience category, Pavelski, Benn, Seguin, Duchene, Marchment, and Tanev all have years of leadership and production that this team has been leaning on.
Depth and balance are the mark of a great team this time of year, and the Dallas Stars have both.
Is Star Power Enough for the Oilers?
North of the border, depth is something that the Oilers thought they had, but the playoffs have exposed that as a potential weakness the deeper they go in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. However, what they do have, is two of the best players in the world.
Connor McDavid is the best player in the NHL, and he’s been titled as such for a long time. However, the facts are the facts. Leon Draisaitl has been the one carrying this team so far this spring.
Yes, McDavid has 21 points and Draisaitl only has three more with 24. But, if you watch the games it’s clear that McDavid hasn’t been himself. Whether that’s because of injury or something else that’s unknown, the fact he still has 21 points is a testament to how great a player he is.
This is not a hate piece on the Edmonton Oilers. Being from Canada, I would love nothing more than to see a Canadian team raise Lord Stanley’s Cup. But the truth is, any sort of depth scoring has evaporated since the playoffs started, leaving you to wonder if it’s enough to get the job done.
Draisaitl, McDavid and Bouchard have 20+ points. Next, you have Nugent-Hopkins with 16 and Hyman with 13. After that, you have only two players with more than 5 points.
Strict defensive play shut down a very good Vancouver team in the final few games of Round 2, but the Stars are a different animal.
The Oilers have the depth. Kane, Foegele, and McLeod are all more than capable of leaving their mark on a game. So far, its been few and far between this post-season, and they are going to have to do more.
All Eyes on Skinner
We already went over Jake Oettinger. His counterpart Stuart Skinner, however, is under a lot more pressure.
Despite having maybe the best mustache in the NHL, it’s been a tough few weeks for the Oilers’ goaltender.
Despite having 7 of the team’s 8 wins, he has an SV% of .881 and a GAA of 2.87. His GAA is decent, but that has a lot to do with facing the Kings in the first round. He was pulled to start games 5 and 6 of Round 2, giving the net to Calvin Pickard. He returned as the starter in Game 7, and despite not being tested, he made some huge saves to help his team move on.
Skinner had the best regular season of his young career. He finished the season with a 36-16-5 record, .905 SV%, and a 2.62 GAA. He is a very good goaltender, fully capable of rebounding from a shaky couple of weeks. However, the stage has never been this bright. Only time will tell how this goaltender responds.
Special Teams May Be the Defining Factor
In the regular season, the Oilers finished fourth in PP% and were in the middle of the pack on the penalty kill. The Stars finished in the top ten in both categories. However, in the post-season, it’s been a much different story.
For the Stars, their powerplay has been very good this spring, coming in at 29%, which is fourth among playoff teams. However, their penalty killing is at 69.2% which is the worst among the final four teams. Considering they’ve taken way fewer penalties than the four remaining teams, it may be more concerning than we thought.
In Edmonton, they’re ranked first in PP and PK percentage.
In the playoffs, the margins for success are very thin. With a 37.5% PP facing off against a 69.2% PK, that might be the edge needed, for the Edmonton Oilers to break into the Stanley Cup Finals.
While the regular season paths were very different, the post-season paths were just as different. The Stars had to get through last year’s Stanley Cup Champs, Vegas, and the Cup champs from two years ago, Colorado. The Oilers had to go through the Kings and the Canucks. No disrespect to the last two teams mentioned, but the harder path is clear.
Maybe the Stars are beaten up and tired. Maybe the Oilers are better rested. Only time will tell.
Game 1 kicks off on Thursday at 8:00 pm EST in Dallas.
